Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Seemed much busier today than it has previously (during the current period), could almost have been a pre-C19 day in terms of traffic, peds etc (on my government approved walk-for-exercise earlier).

Neil Ferguson’s responds to Johan Giesecke claim that the UK was wrong to implement its lockdown measures.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cYjjEB3Ev8

If nothing else COVID-19 has shown how traditional journalism is unable to handle complex issues.

Sturgeon on Marr suggesting schools will reopen with classes being split to attend alternate days or into AM and PM cohorts to maintain social distancing, can't see how that will work with reopening businesses

Reopening schools is about more than childcare. Even if it doesn't allow some parents to return to work it is still good for the kids that get to school.

My work had shifted to 50:50 in the office/from home the week before the lockdown commenced. I expect when the office reopens it will have something similar.

June 1st keeps appearing as the earliest date for retailers with brick’n’mortar shops to open.

50:50 is OK unless you have two different age kids in different parts of the split and then you still have just as much child care to do plus increased school runs

This is an interesting one too:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2007800#article_citing_articles

with

Yup, it will be harder work. I'd be happy with that compared to my kids currently being bored shitless and missing their friends though.

Some other countries do this anyway don't they? Maybe only up to end of primary though.

Secondary kids are easier anyway as you are less likely to be doing the school run and they are more likely to be able to be left alone some of the time.

Interesting study that has found the average loss of life is 14yrs for men and 12 for women. Has implications for the idea that "they would have died sooner or later" regarding lockdown and "taking it on the chin".

https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

Could we open a public shaming thread for all the grumpy old MAMILs who went on an errand today and saw someone behaving uncouthly in public? To save on internetz it could be be merged with the curtain twitcher thread.

Yeah this is badly needed. What we definitely need right now is more judgey people judging.

Gabrielle Hamilton, chef and owner of a restaurant called Prune in New York, on the realities of Covid-19 and the shutdown of her business

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/magazine/closing-prune-restaurant-covid.html

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I think that was supposed to go in the Rapha thread?

Oops, wrong thread!

Thats suprising tbh. On the face of it, its hard to believe its accurate.

We have an average age of 82 i think from the people who have died from this in sweden.
Were they suppose to on average to become 95 ?

Seems off but maybe im applying it wrong or do you have a much lower average age of the dead in uk? Our normal life expectancy for 2019 should be 85 for women and 81 for men approx.

It's an average so I guess it's also accounting for the sub 82 year old population that are also dying from it... I would expect our mortality rate to be higher for 60+ but also all age groups because of poorer average health like obesity/diabetes in the UK but again, that's my impression of UK vs Sweden, not the study findings.

Anyway, I didn't write it-just found it interesting.

Yes i agree its interesting.

If you have enough 30/40 years old dying in the sample group, that's 40odd years "loss of life" per person.

So for an 80 year old it's maybe say 5, I can image with enough younger people you can easily get to 12.

It's a modelling study, Italy death rate mapped onto UK using UK health data. And they say more research / better data is needed.

Yes but if you have enough 30/40 years old you dont have an average age of the dead thats 82 tho thats why my reasoning that uk much have a much younger age affected than sweden or something else is off. Or my head is not on properly (which is always a possibility tbh .)

Were they suppose to on average to become 95 ?

As @gu_h-àrd_gruber_an_cult has pointed out, it's not quite how the averaging works, but at the same time: that's not as unreasonable as you make it sound. Swedish overall life expectancy is 'just' about 82 years, true. But that's at birth. If you are already 82, the expected number of years to your death hasn't dropped to 0.

Ah yes thats a good point, did not occur to me and I missed that was the point he was making.

What's a curtain twitcher thread?