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It's worth noting that due to how Bayesian probability works, having a test that is 60% accurate does not mean that, should you test positive, you have a 60% chance of having had Covid19.
In essence, its not that you have 60% chance of having it, its 60% its right?
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Please do.
I read something earlier in all of this. It was great. But if someone else could explain it simply, to try and help out. That would be grand. -
Reminds me of a great line at the start of this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GgLSnQ48os
"What are the chances of finding me here?"
"It's the first time I've found you here, so I don't know"
ChainBreaker
Chalfie
mmccarthy
@mashton
It's worth noting that due to how Bayesian probability works, having a test that is 60% accurate does not mean that, should you test positive, you have a 60% chance of having had Covid19.
Unless you know the true prevalence of infection in the population you cannot state with any accuracy what your chance of having had it are.
The maths is counter intuitive and I certainly cannot write out an explanation here. Happy to Google links for people...