Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Could we not simply look at the ave deaths over the last 10 years, extrapolate that imaginary line through now, and everything above it can be considered COVID19?

Kind of. The problem is someone who has a stroke and doesn't get to hospital in time due to infection fear is an excess death caused by the crisis but isn't helpful to include when you are trying to work out if you can relax restrictions.