Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

But would that not be offset by the fewer deaths from non-C19 things due to being in lockdown?

I think there has been a spike of cycling deaths due to speeding and more cyclists who would never been on a bike but forced to as its an excuse to get out, but again, far fewer than those that couldve been if there wasnt a lockdown (only hyperthetical rationalisation).

We had a graph showing the flu flat line over the years, and a spike in the deaths attributed to C19 as hospital deaths but this can also be used to show non hospital recorded deaths too.

Surely you would want that included? It’s a consequence. A death is a death?

No one needs that many surely’s

UC Davis has published a study showing California has saved a billion dollars to date-or 40 million a day-because of lockdown reducing motorway accidents/injuries. Wow.

https://t.co/H8Uebd0ZA2?amp=1

FFS because of immigrants, really? Sigh...

Unless they have super good PPS for everyone, and super cleaning in care homes it just spreads as people are packed closed together. Immigrants or not, you just need the one person.

'total number of deaths will be the same over time, so maybe some people here die sooner but our figures will equal other countries eventually' I doubt that I have to say.

If the Swedish population consents to this, OK. But so far Germany/SK do much better, and sure, you can apply the "you have to die of something" strategy, but this is a virus, not general old age/wear and tear.

He said it was due to language barriers maybe not getting official government information through clear enough. Lack of success in isolating care homes elsewhere implies it's not necessarily the real issue.

But would that not be offset by the fewer deaths from non-C19 things due to being in lockdown?

I don't know how many of those there are. I do know lots of hospital doctors are saying there aren't the usual number of heart attack/stroke/diabetes/etc admissions and they are expecting poor outcomes for those patients. I suppose occupations with a high accident rate, eg construction, will have dropped numbers.

I have a friend who is due some heart disease tests which have been cancelled. I assume a proportion of people having that test would be found to have something which needs to be 'fixed' which isn't happening and so they will die.

But again it depends what you want the numbers for. Do you want to work out the number of additional deaths caused by the crisis or do you want to understand the infection rate?

Get a rough estimate of all C19. We all know it's much higher than what current gov figures are.

(probably all due to immigrants obviously)

Or is that what the FT figure is?

Or is that (Get a rough estimate of all C19. We all know it's much higher than what current gov figures are.) what the FT figure is?

The one where they extrapolate from the ONS death certs (https://amp.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab) ? Yes that's what it's trying to be. Chalfie has already described some of the issues with this kind estimation.

Ah, ok that is not -as- bad then.

Yeah you'd think it is easy enough to communicate how to use PPE/clean more. IF you have the processes and kit obv...

aact.ctti-clinicaltrials.org for this same data if you want to connect to the database and play with it if that is your thing.

Fair points.

How many is it then?

How many is it then?

How is your tolerance for waiting?

David Spieglhalter - https://twitter.com/d_spiegel is always ALWAYS worth a read.

You follow Taleb? He loves to shit on Spieglhalter

'Taleb likes to shit on this person' isn't really a statement with much predictive value, though...

How is your tolerance for waiting?

How long we been friends?

Jokes...

I know i know... the longer we wait the better the numbers... Its like asking exact numbers on the black plague...

I love Taleb!

Ha! I don't think there are many people who he rates as highly as himself

I've read his twitter feed for about 30 seconds and can already see that he's a knob.

Oddly had a similar outcome.

Wrote to Clydesdale asking in passing about the terms of a payment holiday - not actually requesting one, just asking how much and when we would have to pay back. They wrote back eventually saying that the payment holiday had been approved and reimbursing our April payment (without really telling us how much we're due to pay or when).

We also wrote to them separately about changing product when current term comes to an end. Had offer through today. Precisely zero checks and seemingly no issue with the payment holiday (for now). Looked into a few other lenders and brokers and all suggested there would be stringent checks. New deal is cheaper (by a fiver) than the old. Main concern was getting an offer at all given the drop in income in the past few years so all in all pretty happy.

33 mortgage years on the wall, 33 mortgage years. One fell off and paid 1.4%, 32 mortgage years...

Read some headlines along the lines of ‘highest death numbers in 20 years”

Begs the question - to me anyway - what was going on 20 years ago?

Anyone know?

Reading this from the the ONS:

The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 10 April 2020 (Week 15) was 18,516; this represents an increase of 2,129 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 14), is 7,996 deaths more than the five-year average and is the highest weekly total since Week 1 in 2000.

... it sounds like those numbers might only be lying around in a handy weekly format starting 2000? Otherwise it'd be quite the coincidence that specifically week 1 of the year 2000 had such an unusually high mortality... Here you can get the numbers starting from 2010, I can't find any actual numbers from 2000 right now.

Millennium bug innit

Actually GPRS opened in 2000.
2.5G.
Which is half of 5G.
Coincidence?

Huh, ta.