• Could we not simply look at the ave deaths over the last 10 years, extrapolate that imaginary line through now, and everything above it can be considered COVID19?

    Kind of. The problem is someone who has a stroke and doesn't get to hospital in time due to infection fear is an excess death caused by the crisis but isn't helpful to include when you are trying to work out if you can relax restrictions.

  • But would that not be offset by the fewer deaths from non-C19 things due to being in lockdown?

    I think there has been a spike of cycling deaths due to speeding and more cyclists who would never been on a bike but forced to as its an excuse to get out, but again, far fewer than those that couldve been if there wasnt a lockdown (only hyperthetical rationalisation).

    We had a graph showing the flu flat line over the years, and a spike in the deaths attributed to C19 as hospital deaths but this can also be used to show non hospital recorded deaths too.

  • But would that not be offset by the fewer deaths from non-C19 things due to being in lockdown?

    I don't know how many of those there are. I do know lots of hospital doctors are saying there aren't the usual number of heart attack/stroke/diabetes/etc admissions and they are expecting poor outcomes for those patients. I suppose occupations with a high accident rate, eg construction, will have dropped numbers.

    I have a friend who is due some heart disease tests which have been cancelled. I assume a proportion of people having that test would be found to have something which needs to be 'fixed' which isn't happening and so they will die.

    But again it depends what you want the numbers for. Do you want to work out the number of additional deaths caused by the crisis or do you want to understand the infection rate?

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