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I reckon for the next six months supply will go off a cliff
Do you think this might mean house prices won’t drop too much?
The wife and I had gotten a few valuations on the house (1 bed house with front garden and assigned parking space on Camberwell Grove) back in Feb with a view to advertising it around now, but obviously that can’t materialise. We’ve now decided we want to make a speedy exit home to Ireland so have pretty much resigned ourselves to renting our house here and living in rented accommodation in Ireland for a while.
If supply is low and we can get what we paid for the house 2 years ago plus enough to cover the legal fees etc, that would be preferable, but it’s so hard to know what way it’ll go.
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Do you think this might mean house prices won’t drop too much?
If there's a supply shortage prices will flatline or gradually decline and selling or buying will be massive pain the ass.
Depends on what you are selling though. Little house with a nice garden? Gonna look real appealing to a couple who just spent two months cooped up in middle-floor flat.
This is why the %16 or so from 2008 isn't that helpful. Some stuff went down a lot more than 16%, others flatlined, some even bucked the whole thing and went up.
I think it comes down to fact that the buyer has no information on which to base their 'discount negotiation strategy'. They are just taking a crap-shoot. 20%. What if it's not enough? What if it's too much? How would you know in such a short time? Likewise the seller has no idea what to expect. You seem pretty sure but I reckon for the next six months supply will go off a cliff and then what?
By resetting and starting again, taking a bit of time to figure out what is going to happen - because we won't really know for another six months or so - you'll get to find out, fairly and squarely, you might win, you might lose, but you didn't exploit someone else's fear in the process.