Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

The Twitter thread ? It's a bollocks thread to be honest. I'm not holding up the UK response as good (go back to the start of this thread and read my comments if you want to bore yourself senseless). But the idea that Ireland vs UK is an A/B test is completely specious. Population density, number of cities and scale of urban populations, scale of travel between China / Northern Italy, and a million other factors that render it meaningless. Not sure what about a PHD in history qualifies you to comment on this. Just someone with a weird axe to grind.

repost?

https://metro.co.uk/video/priti-patel-300-034-974-000-tests-carried-out-2149924/

Imagine if Diane Abbot said that.

Disagree, while it's certainly a bit much to claim it's a perfect A/B test (but nothing can be, it doesn't exist like that in the real world) the differences in government responses are certainly stark and pointing that out isn't 'bollocks'.

Twatter-can't remember the source but was a news org, looks like it's the WHO chart tho?

"Sauna party" eh? Keys in a bowl, wink wink...

Who the fuck signed off on this? Ross Kemp in hospitals.

What a self absorbed dickhead.

UK government response has been a shambles. You don't need to do a nonsensical comparative study with Ireland to establish that.

I still don't think it's 'non-sensical'.

You can't say we haven't learnt as a Society and moved on.
It used to be the free run of hospitals was given to Jimmy Saville.

I think that's her entire point; albeit with a lot more posts.

I'm probably just being grumpy. Sick to death of Twitter threads, and I may have picked on a more or less blameless one.

Hey, I mean you have a point, saying 'A/B test' is a bit far-fetched. But I do think all she really wanted to express is exactly what you said too - that the UK government response has been a shambles, not really much more than that.

That thread seems a little incoherent to me. I don’t understand the logic in late lockdown being a cause of poor recovery rate.

Late lockdown causing more deaths overall seems (sadly) very likely, but that’s another story.

Maybe I am being naive? If there are avoidable deaths through lack of hospital resources that counts as recovery rate. I’m not sure the UK is terrible in this regard? In the south west right now we have almost empty covid wards.

I think her gist is that on balance/average, the uk took ages to shut things down (and still is far from coherent) and has a larger number of deaths for the size of population. Those are true statements but whether there is a correlation is unknown.

being a cause of poor recovery rate

She's not talking about recovery rates, but deaths - or did I miss something?

The point being that an earlier lockdown would have prevented the kind of spread that happens at mass events such as the ones still going ahead, and therefore also the deaths resulting from that spread.

Those are true statements but whether there is a correlation is unknown.

And correlation is not causation.

It isn't, but if we are indeed positing that the lockdown as such is a warranted and at least somewhat effective measure, it's not exactly far-fetched to argue that imposing it earlier or even just specifically banning mass events would have contributed to limiting the spread and therefore deaths.

An earlier lockdown would have almost certainly reduced the number of deaths short term.

Long term it will depend on how we get out of this situation. At some point the vast majority of the population needs to obtain immunity. The only way this will happen without a significant number of deaths will be through a countrywide (and eventually global) vaccination programme - which requires a viable, safe and workable vaccine.

So far I don't think anyone in the UK has died specifically because there was inadequate treatment/ventilators/drugs/etc. If there's a breakthrough in a specific treatment/drug then some of the people that have already died may have been able to be saved, in which case an earlier lockdown would have saved even more. But, sadly, many of the people who have died so far would have died whether they were patient zero or patient 67,000,000.

Probably, I stayed at home today

FFS

https://twitter.com/TonyMorris29/status/1249280823012069377?s=19

That dude is such a Brexit voter.

You say that, but I wanted an ice cream this morning and then we had an amazingly sunny day.

actuachuckle

So far I don't think anyone in the UK has died specifically because there was inadequate treatment/ventilators/drugs/etc.

NHS staff - PPE, including the Doctor who called it out

That's not really what I meant. They had greatly increased exposure to the virus due to their occupation, possibly more so due to lack of adequate PPE. But those NHS staff didn't die because of inadequate treatment, ventilators or drugs.

Why not to take Paracetamol
https://youtu.be/md6BGwGnekw