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Yeah, I remember reading that determining FTP by 95% of 20 mins should be more like 88-92% and everyone who uses the test is over-estimating. But the test subjects were elite riders who I reckon are a bit better at pacing than us mortals.
So as an unremarkable chopper, I would take the large TR test group of choppers as a comparison everyday.
onyerbike
There's a really good TrainerRoad blog post from when they introduced this. I can't find it now. But the tl;dr was that it's kinda the opposite: the suffering, pacing and other issues associated with traditional 8/20 minute tests tend to underestimate your FTP as many (most?) get their pacing wrong or there are other issues.
They tested it with over 7000 people just in beta so I reckon it's probably fairly accurate.