Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

I'll have a more detailed read at some point, scrolling through this sentence caught my eye:

Das würde dem Rest der Volkswirtschaft wieder eine rasche Rückkehr in annähernden Normalbetrieb erlauben und die Aussicht eröffnen, dass diese Krise nicht größer wird als die Wirtschafts-und Fi-nanzkrise 2009.

Quick translation: this would allow the rest of the economy to rapidly return to an almost normal state and opens up the prospect of this crisis not getting any larger than the one of 2009.

Schön wär's...

Denmark opening schools 1st-5th grade April 15th.

Austria also annouced there way out, opening up small shops first and everyone having an app to track them, those without a phone get given a dongle to carry around...

Russian media at 10.30pm last night was reporting he was on a ventilator

He probably wasn't on a ventilator at 10.30pm last night then.

Channel 4 News did call it, they did a 'Boris Johnson Zoom screenshots over time' piece before this was announced and were saying that his claim to have one symptom (fever) didn't add up because ministers were saying he had a cough today and some other things didn't add up.

I'm finding this idea that Raab has been asked to deputise "where necessary" completely ridiculous.

He's in ICU, for fucks sake! He's not going to be doing any work.

Well, I won't read the whole thing; I assume this paper is already quite old, well, in fast-moving epidemic terms, that is--it says 'for official use only', and FragdenStaat seems to be an FOI-type site, so this is probably an internal strategy paper written early on that was published on FdS when the FOI request (or however they do this in Germany) had been processed.

It seems that apart from the points you've pulled out (and the one mentioned by SwissChap), there are some important nuances to increasing hospital capacity, namely that even if the epidemic is successfully contained ("eingedämmt", literally 'dammed up'), availability of assisted breathing equipment will not only have to continue to be increased for the most critically ill, but also for medium severity cases; that the German models assume a 'worst case' scenario of 1 million dead in Germany alone; and that it is crucial to increase public trust in institutions and official bodies and to bring society together over it.

Then there's a very concise briefing on models and communicating them, followed by some pretty wild stuff on a possible social 'nuclear meltdown' that could lead all the way to anarchy! (Where do I sign up?) The whole system could be called into question! The bit that SwissChap highlights is part of this general 'it's the economy, stupid!' theme.

After this, there are various scenarios that I haven't read in detail (up to the end of page 10, which doesn't seem like the complete document).

Definitely a good source of information, and it seems that this paper is probably not superseded yet.

Schön wär's...

It'll all depend on the economy's thrust vector, so I'll watch this space. :)

According to Peston, Raab is acting PM. I suppose 'where necessary' means in every regard.

I hope that is the case, because all management systems need a decision maker. Given the total power of the Johnson / Cummings axis since the election, there will need to be a lot of adjustments and effective reconfiguring of relationships very quickly.

Telling people to fuck off is equally as tiresome.

It's pathetic that they've played down his illness (if they have). Just fucking own it and move on. It will only result in less trust in the government.

Strong and stable.

Andy was right. Don't post innuendo, conspiracy theories, home remedies, etc..

Well, what did you expect: it's chaos with Ed Miliband.

Where is Priti Patel in all this? I haven’t seen or heard from her in weeks. As Home Secretary shouldn’t she be front and centre of some elements such as policing the lockdown?

She’s toxic, debatable whether her personality traits would unite the country. I personally don’t think so.

Oooooof.

She’s been called back to hell to prepare for the apocalypse

I doubt that they expected a pandemic when they appointed her, and the things you mention are probably counter-indications.

Boris is massively vain, this whole just got a bit of a temp will be directly from him, he’ll be desperate not too seam weak.

The guardian is reporting that he’s been on oxygen since he was admitted so if he’s now in ICU does that mean he’s on a ventilator.

The course of the virus is a week of moderate symptoms, then rapid deterioration in some cases isn't it? Boris seems to fit that pattern. Not sure there is a meaningful narrative about down playing it.

I'm not sure either. Which was clear in my post when I said "if they have". But do most people get admitted to hospital with just a persistent fever for overnight testing? I'm guessing no.

Chris Whitty back at his desk after recovering. He started with symptoms at the same time as Boris. Such different outcomes.
Slight tangent...
Spoke to a mate in Spain today. They are putting some of the high death down to the high percentage of smokers in the population. The cheapest cigarettes in Europe by all account.

Sky reporting that 150 Tory MPs have symptoms?

God works in mysterious ways.

They have explicility stated not on a ventilator but CPAP doesn't seem unreasonable to suspect