Science, Statistics and Studies [SARS-CoV-2]

https://twitter.com/J_CD_T/status/1245739661449977867

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/04/covid-19s-death-toll-appears-higher-than-official-figures-suggest

Trying to find something about ace-2 and genetic populations from different geography. Based on something on Trish greenhalghs Twitter.
Is there really a significant observation in the fact more south Indian staff have died? Is it ace-2 or is it more south indians in care positions?

https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1246026863811735554?s=19

Maybe helpful? "Single-cell RNA expression profiling of ACE2, the putative receptor of Wuhan 2019-nCov" - https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1

I guess it would be trivial to test deaths ~ ethnicity with the data if it exists/there is enough of it.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0147-1

More this I think.

Ethnicity is difficult as it's usually self determined, I ask you you give me an answer. Which may or may not change next time.i ask.

But it might give something useful in the "these people are more at risk, especially if front line" these people may be at lower risk.

https://youtu.be/Xr8Dy5mnYx8

i have a nasty habit of questioning everything, im definately sure people on this forum and others know more than i do but i throw this out.

A new page.

Why not keep it inline with the opening post?

He's so well qualified
In natural healing

Centivax / Jacob Glanville - reason to be cautiously optimistic or media spin?

What the fuck is that video?

What the fuck is natural healing?

You'll need to give us a bit more about centivax.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/doctor-in-netflix-doc-says-he-discovered-potential-coronavirus-cure/

Highly sceptical about anything that’s in the NY Post

can you re-use a n95 mask?

I have 5 and have used 2 already, Im only using them for weekly/bi weekly shops so suspect 5 will last be a couple of months, however, can I re-use them for other times e.g. going for a walk?

If coronavirus 'lives' on surfaces for up to a few days I planned to leave it for a few days before reusing.

Ask the manufacturer.

Worst that can happen is a bunch of nasty bacteria and mould grow in it I guess.

Interesting number of deaths to the virus went down today, when you'd expect the 'weekend effect' to raise it.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1355819616649630

Current UK death rate together with imperials estimated infection rate modeling is pushing the overall mortality rate of the disease to below 1%

We estimate that, across all 11 countries between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected > with SARS-CoV-2 up to 28th March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% of the population.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf

Are people dying of a deadly virus, or would the majority of these people have died (edit - during x week) anyway, who happen to have a highly contagious virus in their system? will be interesting when the last couple of weeks have been added

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fweeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales%2f2020/publishedweek122020.xlsx

We all die anyway. So, superficially, your logic is correct: they are all people who would have died anyway, who did so with a virus in their system.

Not what I was suggesting... have annotated to remove all confusion.

What you mean is: are there excess deaths? In response to which, I refer you to the Economist article at the top of the page.

Excess Winter Mortality includes respiratory deaths, so yes most Corona deaths would be included in its figures but not those happening after February.

"excess winter mortality (EWM) index by the three leading causes of death: circulatory diseases, respiratory diseases and dementia and Alzheimer’s disease"

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2018to2019provisionaland2017to2018final

Excessive winter mortality last year (December, January, February) was 49,410 total deaths.
549 per day on average

https://unherd.com/2020/04/how-far-away-are-immunity-passports/

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending27march2020

Good twitter thread which explains the 'would have died anyway' misconception: https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1246866119597621248

https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/Article/2020-04-05-trouble-in-testing-land