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I fundamentally disagree with any attempt to stop exercising outside.
For several reasons-Scientifically spread in the outdoor environment seems unlikely:
cf:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762692
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/
https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2004973
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.08.982637v1The paper that demonstrated Aerosolised stability for 180 minutes does not replicate real world environmental factors: (namely they pumped a substantial aerosolised load into a 40L sealed drum)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1.full.pdfFrom the papers above, and some I posted in this post (https://www.lfgss.com/comments/15178698/) we know the envelope of the Coronavirus to be likely degraded by UV, humidity, etc, and that even the most robust viral particles (measles?) don't linger for substantial periods outside.
Cardiovascular fitness is likely protective against Coronavirus: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7031769/
IF the government bans outdoor exercise, it will prove a misstep, and will lead to a far more rapid shift to political unrest, which- in turn- will lead to more viral spread.
I fear, however, considering the jackassery that this govt has shown so far, that it is inevitable.
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Being outside in the fresh air is some people's run or bike ride in terms of contribution to their mental and physical health i suppose.
Its hard to get people to think about collective behaviour rather than individual behaviour. You can focus all you like on being 2m away from the next person but if youve got enough people in a relatively small area surely the risk of transmission increases? Sure, a small number of people 2m apart isnt a problem...but hundreds? Thousands?
I wonder how much of a problem collective normalisation is? As the weather improves and people see other people stretching the rules, will they loosen their own adherence? Ive seem some fata to show that this might be happening, such ad the increase in road traffic last week.
The google data that was published a few days ago showed that people in the UK are were spending about 20 to 25% more time in public spaces compared to other nearby nations on lockdown. Will be interesting to see if this will be reflected in the infection rates.
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Being outside in the fresh air is some people's run or bike ride in terms of contribution to their mental and physical health i suppose.
Most definitely. Let's remember how many people there are in the UK who do almost fuck all in terms of anything one could call exercise. They haven't all suddenly started jogging and cycling.
Ive seem some fata to show that this might be happening, such ad the increase in road traffic last week.
The question really is what the primary purpose of this traffic is at this point. It surely can't all be people driving to the Peak District to unnecessarily walk their dogs. I don't know.
I still think the fact that there hasn't been a particularly high amount of pressure on businesses to scale down operations and enforce social distancing at work beyond the ones that have physical contact with a client is going to prove to have been a much bigger issue, both due to spread at work, and spread on the way to work. Same with the slow implementation of the rules for supermarkets, though it seems the whole 'distanced queueing' and 'one in one out' thing seems to now be generally applied at least.
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The question really is what the primary purpose of this traffic is at this point. It surely can't all be people driving to the Peak District to unnecessarily walk their dogs. I don't know.
There are 1.5million of us working for the NHS alone. Anecdotally, a lot of colleagues have started driving to work, as our new shift patterns make it a little challenging to guarantee being able to get home for many.
Extrapolating that to the many other frankly incredible people working to keep Public transport going, waste and energy management, water services, the police, fire departments...
I suspect there may be a logical reason for the uptick.Again- anecdotally- the roads around the outside of Regent's were pretty full of parked cars, and the park itself was pretty hectic.
Most cyclists were trying to keep a distance, but some were still riding in bunches.
Extrapolating this- people are cunts. -
I give myself 72 hours before my mental health deteriorates substantially if i cant get some outdoor exercise.
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Anecdotally, a lot of colleagues have started driving to work, as our new shift patterns make it a little challenging to guarantee being able to get home for many.
Yeah, that might account for part of the extra traffic. Which shows the issue - as long as we know nothing about the reasons behind things, it's pretty hard to get any conclusions from them.
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Then again, if the stricter rules on exercise have had a measurable positive impact on infection rate in other countries (i dont know either way), it might be a price we have to pay.
Sadly i dont think evidence will come into it. Various people on this thread have listed reasons why a tightening is inevitable, mainly due to perception of risk rather than actual risk.
One glance out of my window and you'd be forgiven for thinking it was business as usual in the sun on the heath today. Some people will see that and think "if theyre doing it, so can i".
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IF the government bans outdoor exercise, it will prove a misstep, and will lead to a far more rapid shift to political unrest
Why?
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I'm in the same boat. Feels sad not going out there but hoping that restraint this weekend will be rewarded by maybe getting a ride in next - will hope that still works!
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It feels as if any outright ban is less to do with reducing transmission (per @lowbrows post, and any degree of critical thinking about the 2m rule), and more about sending a message that the government is in charge.
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I definitely thought he was actually cycling about his flat. 2m to the kitchen and back.
Donated but disappointed.
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Think the worst two things I came across:
Walkers, joggers and cyclists with headphones making it impossible to let them know you were passing.
People with zero situational awareness stopped to look at maps, take selfies, chat, right in the middle of the path or at a pinch point, dur.
Majority of people in the parks were maintaining healthy distances, mostly fit people out today.
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drove 100 miles today. Lots of back roads. Was really happy to see lots of soloist and duet riders getting their exercise. All observing rules as far as I can tell. Few family units too. hope this leads to another boom in the bike as a form of transport.
feel guilty about car. but I had reason that meets the rules.
oh. And favourite rider of the weekend was old skool fixed gear conversion ( a Coventry Eagle I think), brakless in Needham Market
roll safe people. but roll
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Cycling in the time of Corona
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@skydancer
Not much of a threat is it? Don't do something, or you won't be allowed to do it anymore...