Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Tomorrow morning we're having a three minute ceremony to commemorate all the "martyrs" who died in Wuhan. It's a 3 minute silence but with all the air raid sirens in the entire fucking country being set off. Just what Dr Li Wenliang would have wanted.

What's the problem, not like he only tested positive 8 days ago and is back at work against WHO guidance (14 days vs. the PHE guidance of 7)

Thought this was interesting regarding the herd immunity idea
https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/03/the-coronavirus-crisis-herd-immunity-has-infected-uk-policy-but-who-was-patient-zero-for-this-toxic-transatlantic-idea/

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1246030887348850694?s=20

I could see they were using existing exhibition stands to build the rooms. That document looks like a joke but it's real isn't it?

Quotes the origin of it in an article Cummings wrote in 2013:

“ In 2013, in his 237 page-long paper Some Thoughts on Education and Political Priorities, Cummings expressed his own fascination with evolutionary ideas in economics and developed the notion that computer science and ‘genetic algorithms’ could combat “bioterrorism or pandemics” using “artificial immune systems” and “agent based models”. Cummings directly quotes another New York University professor, Joshua M. Epstein, and his 2009 paper Modelling to Contain Pandemics which discusses the “classical epidemic modelling” of the 1920s which revealed “the threshold nature of epidemics and explained ‘herd immunity’, where the immunity of a subpopulation can stifle outbreaks, protecting the entire herd.”

So, today have Andrew Neil pouring huge doubt on the accuracy of the figures that the UK is using to decide its pandemic policy and the BMJ claiming that 4/5 new covid19 infections in China are asymptomatic.

Meanwhile, the WHO are starting to consider that this virus may be more airborne than previously thought.

I'm not sure we know much about this virus yet.

Look at the people in the background...

Your sarcasm detector needs new batteries.

You're right.

That’s why Nassim Taleb, among others, has argued that the mistake most governments made was throwing the precautionary principle out of the window, and rely too much on modelling

more airborne

This could mean more people have had it already though too?

I guess so, although I have no idea whether that is a good or bad thing. Stuff like this tends to be more complicated than most people would imagine.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/you-may-be-able-spread-coronavirus-just-breathing-new-report-finds

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973 (Small study showing that nov-cov can remain airborne and infectious for 3 hours+)

I do wonder whether the UK is going to regret not being stricter with the lockdown guidelines. I guess we will find out over the next few weeks.

Just saw that Austria are about to start doing random covid19 tests to try to get a better picture of true prevalence in the community. Not sure if they mean antibody or full viral test.

Interesting approach. Sounds like it could be quite useful?

This was spoken about briefly in yesterday’s press briefing. UK labs have 3k tests for surveillance testing in order to calculate likely immunity etc.

How do you quantify how airborne a virus is / capable of being?

1. Wait for infected to sneeze
   
2. Count the virus
   
   

source: I am a "doctor"

I have no idea personally but if you read the links in my post a few above they talk about size of droplets how long they are suspended in the air for, and how long the virus remains infectious while suspended in the air.

I suppose thats one way, but several studies are starting to look at whether just breathing is enough to transmit the virus.

this is quite interesting and also shows how little is known so far:

https://www.inkstonenews.com/health/medical-journal-retracts-study-how-far-coronavirus-can-spread-through-droplets/article/3074449

A paper by Chinese researchers suggesting that the coronavirus could spread farther than previously assumed through fine droplets has been retracted.

There is talk of people from Cheltenham festival spreading it around the country, I can’t believe it.

I guess there's just a rush to find out anything and that rush is making people make mistakes.

Will be interesting to see if the studies in the EU and US on the same subject run into problems too.

The data that was based on was a bit weird anyway...

How exactly do they know this was the moment the other people were infected? How on earth did they arrive at the "infected 30min after initial carrier disembarked" duration? It all sounds a bit dubious, apart from the obvious question of why people right next to the 'patient 0' in this scenario were not infected.

Btw, Switzerland is starting to ask the people who did civilian service (instead of military service, it's compulsory to do one or the other unless you're declared 'not suitable' for medical or psychological reasons) on a voluntary basis to sign up for 2-week-long extra deployments - presumably to help out in hospitals and care homes.

I am painting signs to stave away the boredom of lockdown.

If anyone is a or knows a business in Hackney/Islington sort of area that wants a paper sign then hit me up. I’ll do it and drop it off for nowt.

Have done a couple for my LBS already

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