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SwissChap-
When I started bickering about this on this thread my trigger was a few people saying "they can't ban cycling", "they won't ban cycling" and "it doesn't matter if I cycle, it won't harm anybody".
The first two are outright incorrect and the third is mostly true, apart from the fact that these situations arise from perception and not from actual risk/impact. My point has (almost) consistently been that it doesn't matter if it makes no sense, it doesn't mean it won't happen. See France justifying their recreational cycling ban on the potential impact to health services if you fall off, which surely is just an excuse.
Stonehedge
When the lockdown first happened I did say that a couple of times on this thread but my opinion changed.
I think you are right, when it happens it will be because of a general tightening but I also believe that the government will cite reasons for the tightening and the perception of excessive car journeys and cycling will like be one of the mostly bullshit reasons given to justify it.