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Ah - I probably should look at that paper again. My memory was that Ferguson and others on SAGE were saying that they expected the epidemic to peak in 3-4 weeks under the current quarantine / shutdown measures. I could have got that wrong though.
My general point is that trying to read into daily deaths now (whether up a lot, flat, or even down), is not that instructive. I think it is a similar point you made yesterday when someone was reading into a daily downward movement in new cases.
deleted
Where do you get the 6th from?
Looking at the imperial paper, even if you do nothing the peak isn't until mid april.
Looking at the imperial paper the peak is May - June.
Or have I missed something?