Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

That's good if you can maintain that, but who knows what will happen in the future. Local shopkeepers become infected and shop closes, etc. I suppose you could then choose to start stricter isolation at the point where any of you have to mix more.

We're in a kind of similar situation as we're in a house that's converted into 3 flats. We're keeping our distance from the occupants of the other two flats but downstairs have two kids who are about the same age as my daughter, plus they have a new puppy. It's driving both sets of kids a bit nuts that they can't play together but we're sticking to it, especially as the adults downstairs seem to be less strict about their social distancing.

I don't think your situation is analogous.

Yes, would only consider whilst we are all in full isolation (not difficult to do here, as long as we don't have to isolate from cows).

the best thing is that it was our HR manager who fucking did it, spread it to director of my dept then all managers and some co-ordinators.

HR was patient zero at my work too! They tried to get away with just a "deep clean" of the HR department until the dominoes started falling...

[Edited for not actually being amusing at all. Sorry]

Yes, wasn't planning to introduce those aspects... The haircuts however are on the plate

And this is how you get control of the narrative...

NHS England, which has taken over communications in several health trusts, has warned doctors, nurses and other staff will be subject to disciplinary action if they raise with the media health and safety concerns relating to their workplace conditions or patient care, such as a shortage of personal protective equipment (PPE).

https://www.union-news.co.uk/gma-stands-with-nhs-workers-face-te-sack-for-blowing-the-whistle-on-governments-coronavirus-failings/

Some reflections on where we are globally.

• There are circa 40k reported deaths.
  
• Using the Neil Ferguson / Patrick Vallance rule of thumb (current deaths multiplied by 1000) there may be around 40m cases worldwide as of today.
  That is ~ half a percent of the world's population.
  
• Epi experts like Marc Lipsitch expect in range of 20% to 60% of the world population to get it (that may have been in the absence of delay / mitigation measures).
  
• Neil Ferguson estimate was that cases grow by a factor of 10 in a three week period (again, absent delay / mitigation measures).
  
• So on a global level we are not near the end of the beginning, but we could see a massive increase in cases in countries where there is little ability / will to implement delay measures.
  
• Possibly we could be at 400m cases worldwide by the end of May.
  
• Situation in many European countries will stabilise probably due to measure taken, but we will start to see a massive humanitarian crisis in developing countries.
  

Is there any news on what will happen to the Brexit transition period? Wasn't it meant to be complete by the end of this year?

Is there any news on what will happen to the Brexit transition period? Wasn't it meant to be complete by the end of this year?

There have been calls on both sides to extend it, but none, as far as I've heard, from the government yet.

There have been calls on both sides to extend it

Thanks I did wonder.

MiL

Missing a letter...

I've seen it referenced somewhere...

The official parliament Twitter account gives an interesting post about remote working operations of the house of commons. With a comment about some technical issues still to be resolved.

Love this response and its rejoinder.

Made even better when you realise that the "tech guru" is a Brexit Party wonk.

This has made my day.

1 Attachment

Someone I know who's an ICU nurse has been complaining that the Public Health England guidelines are laxer than the WHO ones (no proper fitting for facemasks for example).

Regardless of the WHO guidelines, surgical masks dont meet our own regulations when it comes to face fitting and resistance to the passage of aerosols.

Its a disgrace. This will be a massive deal when the whole shitshow is over with. As employers, trusts should have had adequate supplies of P3 masks from day one.

Latest NHS figures are out and 367 people died yesterday. 28 with no underlying conditions.

This is a marked increase in deaths.

From: NHS England National
Sent: 31 March 2020 14:42:31 (UTC+00:00) Dublin, Edinburgh, Lisbon, London
To: Fox
Subject: NHS Statement On Coronavirus (Covid-19)

NEWS RELEASE
For immediate release

NHS Statement On Coronavirus (Covid-19)
A further 367 people, who tested positive for the Coronavirus (Covid-19) have died, bringing the total number of confirmed reported deaths in England to 1,651.
Patients were aged between 19 and 98 years old and all but 28 patients (aged between 19 and 91 years old) had underlying health conditions.
Their families have been informed.

367 yesterday? Is that an update on the number released for yesterday (180), or what?

If the NHS system works the same way as in Sweden a death is counted on the day it's registered, even if the death occured a few days earlier. Our stats show a dip every weekend and an increase on Mondays and Tuesdays, but it has more to do with the way the system works rather than actual deaths.

Looking at daily death count in the UK isn't going to tell you a great deal (other than to depress you). It is pretty much guaranteed that daily deaths they won't peak until at earliest week ending 6th April.

Where do you get the 6th from?
Looking at the imperial paper, even if you do nothing the peak isn't until mid april.

Looking at the imperial paper the peak is May - June.
Or have I missed something?

Norway having done shitloads of tests are currently at 0,6% mortality (awkward google translate link). A number that can obviously change for the worse as the epidemic gets a chance to spread to all demographic groups.

But yeah, good news sort of. Would be great if increased testing capacity in other countries will eventually reveal similar numbers.

that's just England as well. will be a few more when they add the rest.

Ah - I probably should look at that paper again. My memory was that Ferguson and others on SAGE were saying that they expected the epidemic to peak in 3-4 weeks under the current quarantine / shutdown measures. I could have got that wrong though.

My general point is that trying to read into daily deaths now (whether up a lot, flat, or even down), is not that instructive. I think it is a similar point you made yesterday when someone was reading into a daily downward movement in new cases.

I think it's today according to Worldometer, but I could be wrong.

at trying to read into daily deaths now (whether up a lot, flat, or even down), is not that instructive.

yeah it's not that great.

https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/03/30/richard-lehmans-covid-19-reviews-30-march-2020/

http://theconversation.com/how-to-model-a-pandemic-134187