Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Some reflections on where we are globally.

• There are circa 40k reported deaths.
  
• Using the Neil Ferguson / Patrick Vallance rule of thumb (current deaths multiplied by 1000) there may be around 40m cases worldwide as of today.
  That is ~ half a percent of the world's population.
  
• Epi experts like Marc Lipsitch expect in range of 20% to 60% of the world population to get it (that may have been in the absence of delay / mitigation measures).
  
• Neil Ferguson estimate was that cases grow by a factor of 10 in a three week period (again, absent delay / mitigation measures).
  
• So on a global level we are not near the end of the beginning, but we could see a massive increase in cases in countries where there is little ability / will to implement delay measures.
  
• Possibly we could be at 400m cases worldwide by the end of May.
  
• Situation in many European countries will stabilise probably due to measure taken, but we will start to see a massive humanitarian crisis in developing countries.