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The curve would have been flatter, fat-tailed and later, with more time to prepare but perhaps less panic (less motivation for action?) and maybe less death. So longer?
Probably.
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See responses in this thread a mere 20 days ago:
https://www.lfgss.com/comments/15144620/
A major government mistake, imo, was not cautioning heavily against leisure travel before the February half term.
miro_o
deleted
So this lockdown may be until October.
How much shorter could it have been if the government had gotten off its fat Etonian arse sooner and banned events/closed borders etc?
By being so slow they've guaranteed it's going to last longer and cost more. That good ol' Tory "prudence" again...