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beer is at stake!
Aha, didn’t realise how serious this was.
If you have access to a PD curve, it’ll take the guess work out of this.
Generally, you should be able to hold threshold for 15-20’ fairly comfortably and repeatedly with a decent rest between efforts. Sweetspot for much longer (an hour or more depending on how trained you are).
You both have similar w/kg FTP’s, so should be fairly evenly matched when the road rises. But your extra watts should help you on the flats, so make them count when you can.
If you have a decent amount of data on strava you can sign up to intervals.icu and it’ll show you power curves and PBs for seasons / years.