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Victoria Park completely closed
https://mobile.twitter.com/TowerHamletsNow/status/1242925385865707521/photo/1
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I was sent this via whatsapp.. not sure how valid this is.
- The Covid virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code (a mutation) and convert them into aggressor and multiplier cells. * Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed. Rather, it decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity, and type of material upon which it rests. * The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam cuts the fat. That, in turn, is why one needs to wash hands for a full 20 seconds, to make a lot of foam. By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule collapses. * Heat melts fat; this is why it is so good to use water above 25 degrees Celsius for washing hands, clothes, and everything. In addition, hot water makes more soap foam and that makes it even more useful. * Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% dissolves fat, especially the external lipid layer of the virus. * Any mix with 1 part bleach and 5 parts water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it down from the inside. * Oxygenated water helps because peroxide dissolves the virus protein, but one must use it pure and it hurts skin. * Antibiotics are useless. The virus is not a living organism like bacteria; one cannot kill what is not alive, and that is what antibiotics do. * Never shake used or unused clothing, sheets, or cloth. While the virus is lying on most porous surfaces, such as fabric, it is quite inert... but will still take roughly 3-6 hours to degenerate to a non-threat; 4 hours on copper surfaces (copper is naturally antiseptic) and wood; 24 hours for cardboard; 42 hours for hours metals other than copper; and 72 hours plastics. If one shakes a piece of cloth or use a feather duster, any virus molecules resting on these items can float in the air for up as fine particulate, not unlike dust, and could conceivably lodge in one's nose. * The virus molecules remain very stable in external cold or artificially induced chilled areas, such as air conditioners in houses and cars. The virus molecules also need moisture to stay stable, and they need darkness. Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm, and bright environments will degrade it more quickly. * UV light on any breaks down the virus protein. But be careful, as it also breaks down collagen (which is aprotein) in the skin, eventually causing wrinkles and potentially skin cancer. * The virus CANNOT penetrate healthy skin! * Vinegar is not useful because it does not break down the protective layer of fat. * Only alcohol that is 130 proof (65% alcohol) or higher will work. * Listerine will not work. It is not 65% alcohol. * The more confined the space, the more concentration of the virus there can be. The more open or naturally ventilated, the less. * This is a given: wash your hands before and after touching mucosa, food, locks, knobs, switches, remote control, cell phone, watches, computers, desks, TV, etc., and of course when using the bathroom. * You should moisturize hands that are dry from too much washing, because the molecules can hide in the micro cracks. The thicker the moisturizer, the better. *Keep your nails clipped so that the virus does not easily hide there.
The good we secure for ourselves is precarious and uncertain until it is secured for all of us and incorporated into our common life. Jane Addams
- The Covid virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code (a mutation) and convert them into aggressor and multiplier cells. * Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed. Rather, it decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity, and type of material upon which it rests. * The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam cuts the fat. That, in turn, is why one needs to wash hands for a full 20 seconds, to make a lot of foam. By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule collapses. * Heat melts fat; this is why it is so good to use water above 25 degrees Celsius for washing hands, clothes, and everything. In addition, hot water makes more soap foam and that makes it even more useful. * Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% dissolves fat, especially the external lipid layer of the virus. * Any mix with 1 part bleach and 5 parts water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it down from the inside. * Oxygenated water helps because peroxide dissolves the virus protein, but one must use it pure and it hurts skin. * Antibiotics are useless. The virus is not a living organism like bacteria; one cannot kill what is not alive, and that is what antibiotics do. * Never shake used or unused clothing, sheets, or cloth. While the virus is lying on most porous surfaces, such as fabric, it is quite inert... but will still take roughly 3-6 hours to degenerate to a non-threat; 4 hours on copper surfaces (copper is naturally antiseptic) and wood; 24 hours for cardboard; 42 hours for hours metals other than copper; and 72 hours plastics. If one shakes a piece of cloth or use a feather duster, any virus molecules resting on these items can float in the air for up as fine particulate, not unlike dust, and could conceivably lodge in one's nose. * The virus molecules remain very stable in external cold or artificially induced chilled areas, such as air conditioners in houses and cars. The virus molecules also need moisture to stay stable, and they need darkness. Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm, and bright environments will degrade it more quickly. * UV light on any breaks down the virus protein. But be careful, as it also breaks down collagen (which is aprotein) in the skin, eventually causing wrinkles and potentially skin cancer. * The virus CANNOT penetrate healthy skin! * Vinegar is not useful because it does not break down the protective layer of fat. * Only alcohol that is 130 proof (65% alcohol) or higher will work. * Listerine will not work. It is not 65% alcohol. * The more confined the space, the more concentration of the virus there can be. The more open or naturally ventilated, the less. * This is a given: wash your hands before and after touching mucosa, food, locks, knobs, switches, remote control, cell phone, watches, computers, desks, TV, etc., and of course when using the bathroom. * You should moisturize hands that are dry from too much washing, because the molecules can hide in the micro cracks. The thicker the moisturizer, the better. *Keep your nails clipped so that the virus does not easily hide there.
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Spent most of the day cleaning windows (Glasgow, first wash of the year so might as well make a good job of it), almost non stop ambulance sirens today, I'm normally outside quite a bit, but still, today was a lot. Also could smell smoke in the afternoon and fire sirens, suspect a few "businesses" might catch fire during this time
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Newsnight has established UK ventilator manufaturer saying they contacted Government asking what they need and never heard back
Then you read the headline, Boris called James Dyson and asked them to build 10,000 if they can design them
??? Goverment procurement in action
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Didn’t Gtech build one from off-the-peg-parts last weekend?
https://www.gtech.co.uk/ventilators
How’s that going?
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That takes place before a marathon if I remember correctly. And out and back from Dorking up to Leith Hill and back. Includes a vertical mile of ascent.
Ran it once in the good old days
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Screwfix still open for collecting online orders. They had quite a nice set up with a cordon outside the door - in one side, yell your order number through the door and then they drop it on a table for you to pick up and hot foot it away.
A reliable source of paint stripper is what's getting me through meetings right now and by the end of this I can begin to put off painting our stairs.
Decent stock levels (apart from pasta and rice) and not too many people in Sainsbury's too. -
Supposedly they got in touch as soon as the Government came out saying they were appealing to anyone who could support with sourcing ventilators
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Bit cynical I think. In my experience with bleeding edge modelling research, people just take a shotgun approach and put out as much as they can as quickly as possible with the aim of getting a head start on interpretation of future results. Obviously it's good for your career if you're the one who has the bright idea first but I would hope in public health that's secondary.
e.g. if those antibody tests start coming back 50% positive then now that the Oxford study is out we have an inkling of what it means. End result is we're less likely to end up looking at results we don't understand and (in theory) no harm done if they've got it wrong
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Its how maths works, if you can show me using maths how those 2 statements can both be true, go for it. but my issue isn't that. My issue is that there is very little data yet on this virus in the grand scheme of things, so little that the models emerging are indicative at best, and certainly not definitive.
All of this research/analysis is being fed into government, and they are having to make the hardest decisions of their lives, while knowing that the foundations they are working on make quicksand look like granite. At the same time they have to stand in front of cameras every day and show no weakness whatsoever because bad as things are now, this plus major public panic is a hell of a lot worse.
To have major academics then throwing early contradictory versions of their sketchy at best analysis into the public domain, and using it to push their own agendas stinks, whatever the motivation.
And what is the motivation? Get our university on the map world wide? Get my name in the paper, and face on TV starting a successful media career when the smoke clears? It could even be the highly laudable “Get the government to follow my course of action because I’m 100% sure I’m right, and the scientific advice they are following is dangerously wrong”. The reality of the last reason is of course that whatever the government do there will always be top academics who think that way.
You say that’s not how modelling works, I’d say this doesn’t strike me as the way publication of serious scientific research works either.
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Ventilator interview:
https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1242949236762738692 -
people just take a shotgun approach and put out as much as they can as quickly as possible with the aim of getting a head start on interpretation of future results.
I get this, my issue is that this should all be feeding into other universities, and the DOH, or whoever is co-ordinating this and doing the government modelling. This looks to me very much like briefing to the press to support their own agenda.
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Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19
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I think that's a real stretch to assume a wicked skew for no apparent reason. Anyway, I tried plugging your numbers in including assuming that from the current 50% infected, there were still anothe 9k who unfortunately will die.
If you then need the remaining 240k deaths from the remaining 50% population, this means that the death rate will have to be 120x the current one if the herd immunity level is the government stated one of 60% (Only 40x if you choose 80% as the required herd immunity level, and 24x with no herd immunity)