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The arrival date is part of the paper that came out of the Oxford research group yesterday. Using the death rates they work backwards to claim that there were uncounted cases before to account for the actual relationship between fist identified cases and deaths. This report was just brought up during the daily briefing and it was not dismissed, but instead got the "We just don't know - and this is why testing is so important!" answer. Which is entirely fair. But I bring it up because it means even the experts are not willing to make a claim with regard to how long it has been here.
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Tx :)
Yeah without proper testing, everyone using the same test, proper sampling (not just one area/age group...) it is all a wild goose chase.
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Its bugging me that these "respectable" institutions are falling over themselves to publish research in its infancy, and the news media is then running with it. Seems to me that a load of academics are seeing the chance to make a name for themselves, and grasping at it.
Imperial say "If left unfettered then 250,000 people could die"
Oxford say "It has been left unfettered and 50%+ have already had it"
If they were both anywhere near correct then, by now, we would have over 125,000 people either dead, or about to die. (Actually more, since the 250K equates to how many will have died once herd immunity kicks in, not 100% of the population getting it). That hasn't happened, so either one or both of these bits of research are spectacularly wrong.
But I bring it up because it means even the experts are not willing to make a claim with regard to how long it has been here.
No, but I bet they are praying that Oxford are correct, that's one of the main reasons that they are touting the antibody test as a game changer. and one where they are 100% right to not start shipping the test until they are 100% sure its accurate.
It should also be noted that they seem to be behaving as if Imperial is correct, which is erring on the side of caution. It also seems that they might have managed to ramp up capacity to somewhere near giving the NHS a chance to cope.
JWestland
Sifta
Thanks :)
But you'd expect at least a big spike like with a serious influenza outbreak I guess?
But would that not mean the ICU admissions AND death rate would have shown earlier, and kept high, unlike with the flu, assuming all countries follow roughly the same peak?
Though as you say the problem is that people often don't get one thing (especially not as covid19 has it in for you especially if you are already ill) so that may make it just impossible to answer this way.
It is hard to say, I guess if China discovered it early December, it is possible some travelers have dragged it in the already. But it is also all speculation.