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Thanks :)
But you'd expect at least a big spike like with a serious influenza outbreak I guess?
But would that not mean the ICU admissions AND death rate would have shown earlier, and kept high, unlike with the flu, assuming all countries follow roughly the same peak?
Though as you say the problem is that people often don't get one thing (especially not as covid19 has it in for you especially if you are already ill) so that may make it just impossible to answer this way.
It is hard to say, I guess if China discovered it early December, it is possible some travelers have dragged it in the already. But it is also all speculation.
JWestland-
But you'd expect at least a big spike like with a serious influenza outbreak I guess?
Influenza bitch slaps us every year. In terms of those who end up in ICU, Covid pretty much seems to go after the same people. Except children.
Disclaimer I probably don't know what I'm talking about, IANAE etc.
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The arrival date is part of the paper that came out of the Oxford research group yesterday. Using the death rates they work backwards to claim that there were uncounted cases before to account for the actual relationship between fist identified cases and deaths. This report was just brought up during the daily briefing and it was not dismissed, but instead got the "We just don't know - and this is why testing is so important!" answer. Which is entirely fair. But I bring it up because it means even the experts are not willing to make a claim with regard to how long it has been here.
Howard
Could have happened, just under the radar, as influenza.
You only find what you test for, and the people in the ICUs often having multiple conditions you just pick the one that's the most obvious.
But yeah. I wouldn't be surprised if it's been around a while, but then I wouldn't be surprised if it hasn't.