Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

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JWestland

I had a chat with my partner about the theory Covid has been around for longer.

He doubt this, as he would expect to see
1: A peak in ICU beds use for respiratory issues as people would have infected each other much earlier (we would be earlier on the curve) based on the assumption the virus was as serious and as spreadable then
2: Reasonable test coverage based on the assumption that the NHS will test people for common issues in ICU beds...which means there'd be a spike coinciding with test results that don't match the common suspects

I don't know for sure if 1/2 are publicly reported. Well maybe I am bored later today and will go on a search chase.

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Howard in reply to @JWestland

1: A peak in ICU beds use for respiratory issues as people would have infected each other much earlier (we would be earlier on the curve) based on the assumption the virus was as serious and as spreadable then

Could have happened, just under the radar, as influenza.

2: Reasonable test coverage based on the assumption that the NHS will test people for common issues in ICU beds...which means there'd be a spike coinciding with test results that don't match the common suspects

You only find what you test for, and the people in the ICUs often having multiple conditions you just pick the one that's the most obvious.

But yeah. I wouldn't be surprised if it's been around a while, but then I wouldn't be surprised if it hasn't.

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JWestland in reply to @Howard

Thanks :)

But you'd expect at least a big spike like with a serious influenza outbreak I guess?

But would that not mean the ICU admissions AND death rate would have shown earlier, and kept high, unlike with the flu, assuming all countries follow roughly the same peak?

Though as you say the problem is that people often don't get one thing (especially not as covid19 has it in for you especially if you are already ill) so that may make it just impossible to answer this way.

It is hard to say, I guess if China discovered it early December, it is possible some travelers have dragged it in the already. But it is also all speculation.
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deleted in reply to @Howard

I guess if they revisit and autopsy 'pneumonia' deaths in December they might see some hits for Covid, but I guess the Government won't have much of an appetite to admit they were even slower off the mark than they were to start testing in earnest and identifying possible contact.

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