Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

I read yesterday that they're about to take a random sample from the population to see how far along on the curve we are.

That's going to be quite interesting! I suppose they'd have to do both type of tests though, both to see whether you're currently infected, and the antibody test to see whether you've already had it.

I'm hoping antibody tests become widely available soon. It'd be rather interesting to see who and how many people have already had the virus, either without even knowing, or with mild symptoms. After all, even on this forum plenty of people have been saying they had something that could have been it, but it was relatively mild and there's no way of knowing without a test.

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It'll definitely be fun to tell them about the shit show they were born it to.

My wife is being induced at 39 weeks and the doctor said that at the moment it's one birthing partner allowed only, this will hopefully stay the same but she also told us that if the situation with the virus gets worse that they won't let anyone into the hospital that isn't a patient. So yeah fun times indeed!

Both deaths and reported cases, or just reported cases? Deaths seem likely to be a more accurate measure, but again relies on testing.

Both deaths and reported cases, or just reported cases? Deaths seem likely to be a more accurate measure, but again relies on testing.

Not all countries test all casues of death (Germany, for instance - which may be one of the multiple reasons it's behind the curve).

Unlike in Italy, there is currently no widespread postmortem testing
for the novel coronavirus in Germany. The RKI says those who were not
tested for Covid-19 in their lifetime but are suspected to have been
infected with the virus “can” be tested after death, but in Germany’s
decentralised health system this is not yet a routine practice.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/germany-low-coronavirus-mortality-rate-puzzles-experts

Thanks, the uk is in the same boat for testing though ?

Even with low population density I still would have thought it would spread more in towns and cities.

Even deaths is ‘hard’ - attribution in at least some cases will be unclear. But when everyone is talking about C19 you aren’t going to get a medal for marking it up as ‘it’s complicated’

Conversely, Japan for example could be lying about what is killing their 80 year olds - many of which will die this year, as in any year.

Or they could have their shit sorted.

Who knows?

Makes sense.

I haven't seen anything that cleans data sets by country / regional level to estimate excess deaths. I would think a simple estimate would be deaths per thousand in this year versus prior year at a localised level. I.e. have deaths per thousand sparked materially in Lombardy or Madrid y-on-y? Then again, that is bound to be an over simplification and missing many other relevant adjusting factors,

Yes, but the next few paragraphs are kind of relevant in this context too:

Practising medical specialists such as Addo do not believe this number of unreported cases to be statistically significant. “I have yet to see any data that would suggest a large number of untested corona-related deaths that don’t show up in the statistics,” she said.

“Clinics dealing with respiratory illnesses have been on high alert about the virus for weeks, so I would be very surprised if there was a significant figure of uncharted deaths.”

The RKI’s official mortality figures include both people who have died of the virus as well as those infected and with underlying health problems, where the precise cause of death could not be determined.

Seems like similar tactics testing wise, but I'm not too clued up about either tbh

Stockholm is apparently way ahead of the curve so far. Our end of the country is supposedly far behind, but again I don't know how they know. If you count people in hospital + deaths that is.

I sincerely hope we've had it, I really don't want to find it out it was the regular flu and then having to go through the whole thing again soon

Do you even need to go through your broker? Clydesdale should just offer you a deal and I doubt it'll be that different to what your broker could get anyway, I found the broker was great for getting us a deal when we were first time buyers (I'm self employed and my wife's earnings are bonus heavy so the financial calculation wasn't straight forward) but when it came to remortgaging the deal we were offered to just continue with nationwide was pretty much the same as what the broker could get.

13 days ago I was informed that I’d have to take 20% of unpaid leave for 3 months from April 1st.

This has now increased to 40% - glad still to have a job and that benefits remain untouched (for now).

Taking April off and do an online course from Cornell I think.

Which is why I wrote: "which may be one of the multiple reasons it's behind the curve"

Why are the inducing at 39 and not 40+5ish? Is it due to the virus?

the underlying data is crazy fuzzy

The underlying assumptions appear to be bonkers.

Mortality rates extrapolated from infection rates extrapolated from actual deaths (assumed / guessed at being C19 related), being then used to derive infection rates.

Any model validation will have sensitivity analysis and caveats, but your sois-disant statistician viro-epedemiologist experts pueyo, campbell et al. either ignore this, or (and prepare yourself for a shock) not qualified to make the statements they make, or, at the very least, should be taken with a big pich of salt.

Disclaimer: I am not qualified in any of the above fields. I know enough to know that I don;t know much, and that deferring to people that do this for a living is likely a GoodIdea™

Just been sent a link to this app, legit?

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Sure. I just thought it's still kind of relevant to point out those experts think it most likely does not make a big difference, rather than that they leave it open.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1242750598560321536

Thanks for this. I was interested in how it is taxed etc., but it’s academic now as the company has said they will top it up to full pay.

Probably real but if in doubt, just wait until it's in iTunes or Google play.

yes was in the news yesterday
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/24/uk-app-aims-to-help-researchers-track-spread-of-coronavirus

Off licenses added to essential businesses list.

successkid.jpg

https://citymapper.com/CMI

Citymapper’s moving index is quite an interesting tool. Shows that 25% of the population were ‘moving’ yesterday.

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No not virus related, everything is fine but she's a little bit small and there's a higher risk for smaller babies if they go over term so they like to induce at 39.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/

Symptom tracker. Please download and use if you can!