Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Here's the actual paper for those interested (the 50% one). https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0

The claim (as I read it) is not that the UK has already had 50% infected, but that it could be much higher (and as high as that), because we (and everyone else - including Italy which is also part of the study) started counting quite late. They use a method which backtracks from the first deaths to estimate how long the virus would have been around to result in deaths, and how many people would therefore have been potentially infected.

The real conclusion of the paper is that a lot more emphasis needs to be placed on testing. Which, with the news that 3.5 million anitbody tests have been purchased, we'll start seeing, I suppose.

Our simulations are in agreement with other studies that the current epidemic wave in the UK and Italy in the absence of interventions should have an approximate duration of 2-3 months, with numbers of deaths lagging behind in time relative to overall infections. Importantly, the results we present here suggest the ongoing epidemics in the UK and Italy started at least a month before the first reported death and have already led to the accumulation of significant levels of herd immunity in both countries. There is an inverse relationship between the proportion currently immune and the fraction of the population vulnerable to severe disease.

This relationship can be used to determine how many people will require hospitalisation (and possibly die) in the coming weeks if we are able to accurately determine current levels of herd immunity.