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Squaredisk
@Aroogah
re: The argument about models
"All models are wrong. Some are useful" - George Box
Or in the longer version from his 1978 workshop.
"Now it would be very remarkable if any system existing in the real world could be exactly represented by any simple model. However, cunningly chosen parsimonious models often do provide remarkably useful approximations. For example, the law PV = RT relating pressure P, volume V and temperature T of an "ideal" gas via a constant R is not exactly true for any real gas, but it frequently provides a useful approximation and furthermore its structure is informative since it springs from a physical view of the behaviour of gas molecules. For such a model there is no need to ask the question "Is the model true?". If "truth" is to be the "whole truth" the answer must be "No". The only question of interest is "Is the model illuminating and useful?".
So what is not clear is how much more useful the new model is in planning and managing the crisis. It's just "we think more people are infected" but since testing has been insufficient no one knows who is right. So, it is literally, completely academic.