Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

That seems implausibly optimistic. If half of us have had it and 'only' 400 dead, what has gone on in Italy?

Speculation:-

Different infection demographics. We tend to pile our elderly into isolation or old people's homes. Italians tend to keep their elderly at home with younger generations.

Is the UK a ticking timebomb in terms of the elderly generation? I guess we'll know a bit more in 2 weeks when the current set of people who are infected are either in the grip of severe illness or getting over it - possibly even without even knowing they had it.

Herd immunity can't work in elderly dense places (retirement villages, old people's homes, etc) as the numbers just don't work, ~80% of people would include a lot of the specifically vulnerable.

what has gone on in Italy?

Got a paper from the Lancet to read on that later.