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And if being overweight/obese is a factor influencing severity of C19.
Then for the sake of the NHS, ride your bike, ride your bike, ride your bike (once daily for an hour).This exactly, I'm in my late fifties and with a high BMI, which I really need to get down, both for my own sake, but also because if I sit around for the next 3 months watching box sets, and fighting off the urge to snack/drink through boredom, I may very marginally lessen the chance of using ICU spot from COVID, but I am increasing it of using one for heart attack/stroke. It seems to me that cycling if done sensibly/responsibly is the easiest form of exercise to indulge in while social distancing.
Just to stress, I don't know what the relative probabilities of one against the other, I like all other keyboard warriors don't sit every day running computer models of the effects social behaviour have on health, but the government do exactly that, so I think its best to take their advice, I find this pious social vigilantism obnoxious.
I think the sensible thing is to follow advice, not demand measures you in your unimformed way think are "Common sense", but when this is all over there must be a full and open public enquiry into actions taken, for lessons learnt for when this happens again. (It will unfortunately also be used to apply 20/20 hindsight to decisions taken in highly difficult circumstances).
A few other things I'm guessing the government are taking into consideration: (I stress guessing, because I like everyone else on this board don't know)
- Mental health, I can't see how we are going to come out of this without a spike in suicide rates, and a lockdown will add to this.
- Domestic violence, most violent crime is in the home, I can't see increased family time spent in forced incarceration not makng this worse.
- Smoking, you can't tell me that ex smokers under stress with time on their hands stuck in the home haven't fallen off the wagon, again this can lead to increased use of ICU resource.
- Drinking, ditto above.
- Mental health, I can't see how we are going to come out of this without a spike in suicide rates, and a lockdown will add to this.
Sifta-
Possible scenario - to protect people from a disease that goes after people who are overweight with heart problems/*, we coerce the population to engage in behaviours that put them at increased risk of becoming sedentary, overweight and subsequently suffering from heart problems**.
* this may be a gross simplification
** this may also be a gross simplification -
Yep,
aren't Xmas & Easter holidays spikes for Family violence/break ups
as family groups that just about survive weekends,
have fortnights of unmanageable stress? -
Mental health, I can't see how we are going to come out of this without a spike in suicide rates, and a lockdown will add to this.
Domestic violence, most violent crime is in the home, I can't see increased family time spent in forced incarceration not makng this worse.
Smoking, you can't tell me that ex smokers under stress with time on their hands stuck in the home haven't fallen off the wagon, again this can lead to increased use of ICU resource.
Drinking, ditto above.These are all sensible and valid concerns. The extended Channel 4 News last night, which was excellent (if a depressing indictment of this government's failure to plan effectively for this pandemic), had a package on domestic violence/abuse and it is a very real concern.
Howard
mespilus
Fox
And if being overweight/obese is a factor influencing severity of C19.
Then for the sake of the NHS, ride your bike, ride your bike, ride your bike (once daily for an hour)