Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

If Covid-19 goes unchecked throughout the world then even a conservative 1% mortality rate will see 78 million dead so it has the capacity for outstripping deaths from starvation (albeit for a short while).

I'm hoping that the mortality rate will gradually be lowered downwards towards that of flu as we learn more and get better at attribution. I'm really hoping that this thing basically tag teams with flu so whilst many will have their deaths attributed to it, that will mean less will have their deaths attributed to the flu and the net is only partially altered.

Or something. Completely wishful thinking, in fact. Who knows.

You are ok atm, job is ok and you are getting paid? So many posts here, maybe you already mentioned it but then I missed it :)

Oh got new jobs because bike shop are booming, despite what Halfords said.

Pretty much agree with you.

Can't help but feel that given the shambles of testing and the minimal effects it has on most people that millions of negligible cases are being missed and not counted in the figures.

Woohoo! :)

Rode into Cambridge city centre for some air and sun, absolute ghost town, as it should be (apart from other joggers/riders getting their half hour of activity), glad we're taking this seriously at last

and @Howard
I would again urge reading the CEBM predicitions. https://www.cebm.net/oxford-covid-19/
The likelihood is for a lower true mortality rate (they call it IFR in the paper). What we see reported will continue- until well past we're out of this peak initial period- to be falsely inflate by reduced testing.
In terms of developments in other nations, especially those with less developed healthcare systems, I would suspect we cannot project our data across effectively- due to a very different age and comorbidity profile.

Anectodally, I can suggest that the worse outcomes are related to pre-existing CV disease.
This does not necessarily bode well, as taking SSA as an example- the prevelance there is very high (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4820479/)

Cheers Ryan

their half hour of activity

There's no proscribed limits: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52010555

"
Is exercise allowed?

People are still allowed to go outside for exercise - including walking, running or cycling.

However, this can only be done on your own, or with the people you live with.

Mr Gove says this should be your "standard length" of exercise and only once a day.
"

So it seems the advice is to keep doing what you were doing before. I'll leave it up to other people to determine whether this means they can suddenly up their exercise massively because the guidance doesn't explicitly rule this out.

Note that France has joined Italy in putting much stricter limits on exercise: https://twitter.com/JusticeRules4/status/1242460633955807234

"1 hour per day and no further than 1km from your home."

I'd be surprised if the UK doesn't adopt similar within the next two weeks.

For the avoidance of doubt my posts are not official government policy

For shame

thanks son crying now

India has just announced a 21 day nationwide lockdown. Meanwhile, Hubei Province will start to open next week, and Wuhan the week after. A friend of mine went back to Wuhan for the holidays, travelling with a colleague (that she doesn't know particularly well) of hers who lives in a city beyond Wuhan - they have been stuck in her parents 1 bed flat ever since (a day or two over 2 months now...), with her parents and at least one grandparent.

Gutted that we've finally got some great weather and I can't go out on the motorbike for a blast down the lanes. It's been locked in the garage for 4 months now.

Probably the safest i'll ever be on it due to the lack of traffic but don't want to risk being a burden on the NHS...

That's odd as he was Rapha-ing hard in LA yesterday:
https://www.metro.news/lifes-a-gas-as-orlando-bloom-stops-for-nuzzle-with-pregnant-katy-perry/1954715/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2kesmAO8VU

Go for noodles

Not necessarily, the group of people that would be at higher risk of death with pre existing medical conditions would have likely not survived long enough to be in a higher risk group.

For example the average life expectancy of a man in Somalia is a horrendous 53.7.
Average for sub-saharan Africa is 59.

As comparison, the life expectancy in Spain and Italy is 81, UK is 79 is China is 74.

I imagine it will spread crazy fast in some of the poorest countries, and hope that the rate of death will be low...

Jesus man! That's claustrophobia inducing just to read about.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FikzgWE3t0A

Grocery run.

Doesn't that just mean that the high risk group becomes the clearly ailing 40 to 50 year olds? They're not dying at 53 for no reason!

lol

Rode into Cambridge city centre for some air and sun, absolute ghost town

Well jealous.

If you are a Somalian man who has got to 40 years old it seems you have a fair chance of getting to 70.

They seem to have an awful problem with infant mortality.

Bet they know each other better now...

There's a screenplay in that. Not sure whether Rom Com or Horror though.

Cheers for that. Move over rock stars, superstar DJ's and pro gamers, being a noodle master is where its at.

Reminded me of watching those Campagnolo instruction videos where some fast fingered Italian mechanic strips and fully services a 10 speed ergo shifter in 2 minutes, when in fact it took me half a day and a near nervous breakdown.

The noodles do look less stressful, think I'll give that a go this week, though I foresee much more mess and much less skill and noodles.