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Annual global deaths from starvation ticked past 2 million this week whilst Covid-19 deaths for the equivalent period are still under 17,000.
If Covid-19 goes unchecked throughout the world then even a conservative 1% mortality rate will see 78 million dead so it has the capacity for outstripping deaths from starvation (albeit for a short while).
Greenbank-
..and you can guarantee populations who are starving will be hit far worse by it too.
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If Covid-19 goes unchecked throughout the world then even a conservative 1% mortality rate will see 78 million dead so it has the capacity for outstripping deaths from starvation (albeit for a short while).
I'm hoping that the mortality rate will gradually be lowered downwards towards that of flu as we learn more and get better at attribution. I'm really hoping that this thing basically tag teams with flu so whilst many will have their deaths attributed to it, that will mean less will have their deaths attributed to the flu and the net is only partially altered.
Or something. Completely wishful thinking, in fact. Who knows.
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and @Howard
I would again urge reading the CEBM predicitions. https://www.cebm.net/oxford-covid-19/
The likelihood is for a lower true mortality rate (they call it IFR in the paper). What we see reported will continue- until well past we're out of this peak initial period- to be falsely inflate by reduced testing.
In terms of developments in other nations, especially those with less developed healthcare systems, I would suspect we cannot project our data across effectively- due to a very different age and comorbidity profile.Anectodally, I can suggest that the worse outcomes are related to pre-existing CV disease.
This does not necessarily bode well, as taking SSA as an example- the prevelance there is very high (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4820479/)
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Howard
Annual global deaths from starvation ticked past 2 million this week whilst Covid-19 deaths for the equivalent period are still under 17,000.
With a global recession now pretty much accepted by everyone when will arguments start to be made that we've prioritised the wrong thing and the economic consequences of our actions now will cost more lives later on than we're saving now?