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Is the fact that increase in total deaths per day has fallen well below 33% in Italy due to quarantine measures implemented two weeks ago, or an inherent characteristic of the growth rate of the epidemic?
I assume quarantine measures would have a 3 to 4 week lag in their impact on reducing death rate, therefore would not have had an impact on daily increase in deaths in Italy yet?
I'm doing 388 (UK deaths to date) multiplied by 33% (current daily increase in total deaths in the UK) to the power of 21 (3 weeks) and scaring myself about where we would be in 3 weeks time, but I am sure the assumptions behind that calc are flawed.