Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

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in reply to @h2o

Just to add, this roughly matches the under reporting estimates given last week by Vallance (5,000-10,000 cases with 500 reported).

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deleted in reply to @

I think the rule of thumb Vallance applied then was current deaths multiplied by 1000, per Neil Ferguson extrapolated from estimated CFR and growth rate.

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in reply to @deleted

Cool - means (taking this work at face value) it was a good rule of thumb.

They note in the paper that age of population is currently not being taken into account, but they aim to add it. That will be a fuck load of busywork, but it will be really interesting to see the impact it has.

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