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They’ve been told to expect upwards of a quarter of a million fatalities, and 10 times that in medical care.
Hold on. Who has told them this and on what basis?
Not disputing what you're saying, I'd just like to know the source.
If that is the future scenario, why are we not seeing deaths in China? Are they really so much better at social distancing?
dubkev-
China had SARS, which never reached the west, and that killed so many people they developed serious protocols for dealing with it. People with a fever where sent to a special fever triage clinic, and those with CV sent on to a specially built hospital, rather than back to their house to infect their family. What really fucked the Chinese was the long incubation period, so they developed the system of phone tracking and colour coded QR stamps to show if people were at risk. Seems unlikely the west is going to be doing this level of disease prevention anytime soon
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If that is the future scenario, why are we not seeing deaths in China? Are they really so much better at social distancing?
Yes!
https://mobile.twitter.com/heylauragao/status/1241620966762938370
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The imperial report is pretty consistent with these figures in various scenarios:-
user800813590210
Velocio
Greenbank
My ex is the ICU manager/head nurse at Northwick Park Hospital, that declared a critical state a couple days ago. Our son in in isolation in Langkawi, Malaysia right now - he lives in Saigon and when his school closed down (he’s a teacher) due to the virus he went off for a break and is now confined there. He’s more worried about his mum who is right at the forefront of this, and is going to have repeated exposure to the virus, and she’s now 55 and a long-term smoker (like most nurses, wtf?) and a bit unfit. I spoke to her tonight, the first time in at least 5 years, to ask her to reassure our son as much as she can, and she did. She’s concerned of course, but he’s in a good place. As for her, she’s got her professional head on but it’s a tall order. They have 10 ICU beds there, and they’re one of the largest in London. She says there are approx 6,000 ICU beds in the whole of England. They’ve been told to expect upwards of a quarter of a million fatalities, and 10 times that in medical care. There is simply no way that the NHS can cope with numbers like that. Years of underinvestment has seen to that. Her parting words were “look after yourself, and stay safe”. This is from a critical care nurse with nearly 40 years in the job.
I’m more concerned again tonight.