Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Sorry about the pub psychology. The pubs are closed :)

It may be worth remembering that social distancing isn't binary. Everyone can go out and find examples of people doing things which they judge to be wrong. The important question is one of scale. Is this everyone? Most people? A small minority? Anecdotes won't answer these questions and it is at scale that the impacts are measurable. So while one person may be virus positive and outside, the opportunities for their interactions may have diminished through structural changes (things being closed) and social changes (hygiene, less risky forms of interaction, a portion of the population isolating).

Don't apologise. Not sure anybody should be getting pissy at people sharing and discussing opinions on an internet forum.

I guess people have a lot on their mind at the moment.

Just reflecting on the discussion last week that the government were 'timing' there response to 'maximise effectiveness', and that dunning krugerite indviduals off out date bike forums shouldn't be questioning it.

A week is a long time in a pandemic.

The key piece of information here is that Boris' political hero is the mayor from Jaws who didn't close the beaches

Not sure anybody should be getting pissy at people sharing and discussing opinions on an internet forum.

I don't think that's right. "Opinions" which encourage panic and potentially worsen the situation should be called out.

(not saying that's what Miro's post was, however)

Heat kills the virus (allegedly) and their population is young

I live in Singapore which I’d qualify as “hot” - I’m not buying the theory that this virus slows down at 20-25 degrees Celsius as there’s currently zero proof of this happening. Thailand about to shit down, Malaysia already shutdown and Indonesia is a ticking time bomb where temperatures rarely drop below 20c.
Or am I that wrong about this?

A bit of trashy article, but some insights into the policy u-turn

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/10-days-that-changed-britains-coronavirus-approach

Patrick Vallance seems to have more influence than Chris Whitty, which is alarming.

It’s not public knowledge whether the strategy is in effect or not.

Just because I’m shocked at how people have acted, doesn’t mean the experts and advisors are.

Just because I’m shocked at how people have acted, doesn’t mean the experts and advisors are.

Very good point. At the same time, I'd hate for people to start to think of themselves as the statistically calculated outlier, and therefore head out for a game of twister.

Totally agree.

Ignore or call out rather than grumbling.

Calling out is not being pissy in my book.

I thought it was pretty well accepted that last week's behavioural science / herd immunity strategy was in tatters, and that the predictive modeling that drove it was based on false assumptions.

Some source information here:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/neil-ferguson-coronavirus-expert-who-is-working-on-despite-symptoms

Change in strategy resulted in SAGE accepting the Imperial MRC research as I understand it.

In 2020 the mere concept of Twister is considered a microaggression.

Ha, I can imagine you panicking at the suggestion.

With the timing I saw that as media management and continued nudging.

[edit] Input data altered. Specifically the numbers of patients visiting hospital needing itc beds if I remember correctly. [/edit]

Talking as they did of herd immunity was a PR debacle but the theory remains, if you value stability ~ next spring.

It involves more people dying overall ... so of course government will avoid dwelling on it.

I think the measures being taken elsewhere gave them ‘permission’ to implement similar here.

I fucking knew that herd shit was getting made up on the hoof.

Ha

Some vitriol on the dunwich dynamo FB group. Maybe it is responsible to stay away this year but I don’t buy the idea that it’s putting unnecessary strain on the NHS (if you have a big off for example). Staying active is crucial and there’s more chance of resource-sapping injury fighting over super noodles in the local Tesco than there is on a bike ride of mostly experienced responsible cyclists.

German friend just got an email from the reserve battalion asking about availability and readiness.

They no longer have military service but that was only recently abolished, anyone who went through it is a reservist for 30 years.

At the moment it's voluntary and establishing readiness.

Government just saying there is roughly £1bn more food in peoples houses than three weeks ago, turned to a nation of preppers

15 quid per person doesn't sound insanely excessive

Problem is, that's just 1000 prick's houses.

Wonder how much expired food's been chucked over the same period as people finally look at the back of their cupboards?