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risk of crashing and injury to my view, has not decreased
The solution is for all recreational cyclist to be armed with a pistol loaded with one cartridge in case they crash.
Seriously though, the reason officials continue to recommend outdoor exercise is because now more than ever they need healthy (potential) patients. Immune system, vit D from sunlight and so on. Cycling is a very safe activity unless you´re a dick. Just apply brakes when descending, slow right down for junctions, obey the highway code more generally and don´t be a dick. Not hilly enough where you live? Slap a couple of bags of cement on your cargo bike. No cargo bike? Buy cargo bike.
Then there´s what people will do if stuck at home. They´ll tuck into their stockpiled crisps and beer and watch Pornhub. Worse still, post on an outdated bike forum. Right, I´m off for a ride with the wife and kidz.
Do you think that's a statistically significant risk if you go out for a ride? If so, then yes, you should stay at home. Have you considered cycle training? Once social distancing is no longer necessary of course.