Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

627 dead in Italy today. Long way to go yet :(

So fucking daft. Apart from it being total shit being riddled with flu in a cramped camper without home comforts, forcing remote hospitals/GPs to stretch already sparse rural resources to deal with a surge in urban evacuees all potentially spreading the virus is unforgivably short sighted and selfish.

I know a CFO for a major airline. They are in advanced stages of sending their planes to the desert. Financial implications are huge. In his words, planes are made to fly so they’re trying to keep them moving as much as financially possible but the turning point is this Monday when they have to decide how many planes are going to the desert. Their average fleet age is less than 7 years apparently, one of the youngest in the industry.

They are in advanced stages of sending their planes to the desert.

What does this mean? Sending wide bodies for storage or sending planes to the bone yard? Googling suggests both but given the age profile of fleet, the former seems most likely.

It’s the “cheapest” solution allegedly. This is a long haul carrier and the bulk of their aircraft is wide body jets. They continue to pay the lease on them whilst also having to pay for them to be wrapped up in a desert somewhere. Once the economy turns around they go in for maintenance (which is bloody expensive) and start flying again.

Apparently it’s worse for a plane to sit on the tarmac for months on the equator than sitting in the desert.

Beer was rationed in my Aldi in a particularly stupid way - 4 of each item only, regardless of pack size, so I could get 4 crates of shit beer but no 6 cans of nice stuff 🤦♂️

I had the same dumb argument in Tesco. I could buy 2 (or 3)packs of four Life & Death (natch) but she wouldn't let me buy 8 individual cans (which were reduced slightly)

This is interesting. Someone alluded to this yesterday I think (@dubtap?).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

There is a company that rents out space and maintenance for parked planes. Based close to Adeleide if I remember correctly. A couple of months ago they had boing max 737 stored.

Interesting article on the long term impacts and permanent changes to society

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/19/coronavirus-effect-economy-life-society-analysis-covid-135579

They know that theyre going to have to choose who lives and dies.

A million pardons if this is yet another repost, but it is chilling to see this shockingly young NHS doctor undergo Covid-19 PPE training while being just a happy young lad and to compare his demeanour to that of his physically and mentally wrecked colleagues in Lombardy. Take an overdose of those Maltesers if it helps you cope, doc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XZ2_xSHKMw

Samuli

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/­bike-blog/2020/mar/20/why-not-encourage-­cycling-during-the-coronavirus-lockdown?­CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR0hP1bSqbW1AF­eQ_efPRYV-LlZ6IfdlLVlWkQRnmhcm0Lc08WtCDz­k79nQ

So impressed by the Belgian non-government´s action on this. I wonder if pros are travelling from their usual spring training grounds to train up here instead?

From the Belgian National Crisis Centre´s website:

"Lichaamsbeweging in de buitenlucht is toegestaan en zelfs aanbevolen. Dit kan met gezinsleden die onder hetzelfde dak wonen en met een vriend. Uitstapjes met gezinsleden die onder hetzelfde dak wonen zijn toegestaan. "

"L’activité physique en plein air est autorisée et même recommandée. Elle peut s’exercer avec les membres de la famille vivant sous le même toit et un ami. Les sorties en famille vivant sous le même toit sont autorisées."

"Körperliche Betätigung im Freien ist erlaubt und wird selbst angeraten. Sie kann mit Familienmitgliedern, die unter demselben Dach leben, und einem Freund stattfinden. Familien, die im selben Haushalt leben, dürfen zusammen für kleine Touren nach draußen gehen."

https://crisiscentrum.be/nl/news/crisisbeheer/covid-19-blijf-thuis-zorg-voor-jezelf-en-anderen

season will be opened just a bit earlier to give an option to using other public transport

Good job. Is this being done on your initiative? (I hope I´ve got the right Samuli, that is...)

Also, could you post a link to that THL interview please.

Have the option of staying in the south of France (where I currently am)...I’d be crazy to come back to London at this point, right?

So after it became clear we were seriously contemplating staying, my father-in-law did a rapid pivot from “you’d be very welcome to stay” to “you’d be welcome to stay but here are all the reasons why it’s a terrible idea and you would be better off going home now, please get off my land” and I now find myself back in London. Hooray!

Police in face masks checking boarding passes and passports at the entrance to the airport in France. A total of 25 people on the flight. No one in the queue at border control. Short stay car park now virtually empty. Really rammed home the reality of the situation.

God this thread moves quickly. Every time I look it has jumped 25 pages.

I just thought 80% seemed high.
But perhaps Sky TV subscriptions, latest iPhones on contracts, new car leases etc. are considered 'essentials' in today's society?

God this thread moves quickly. Every time I look it has jumped 25 pages.

Frightening.
It'll get worse before it slows down.
#flattenthethread

Has anyone seen an age-range distribution for the Diamond Princess cohort? Crew plus passengers - I'm guessing the passengers were older, the crew younger.

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180#html_fulltext

I haven’t.

There is some mention of passenger age.

... it is worth noting that the passengers and crew whose data were employed in our analysis do not constitute a random sample from the general population. Considering that most of the passengers were 60 years and older, the nature of the age distribution may lead to underestimation if older individuals tend to experience more symptoms. An age standardised asymptomatic proportion would be more appropriate in that case.

Cruise customers are quite a self selecting group (with a relatively high proportion having underlying health issues).

This blog series could be fascinating.

Dr Sonia Hudson seems like a bit of a legend.

Some what related but I saw a post somewhere that I now can't find that suggested that China has had a net gain in the living due to the shut down reducing deaths from air pollution and road traffic accidents in over the same period, God knows how you would build that complexity in to the models though

Ha, I shared that. It was from the Guardian ticker. It was based on some preliminary modeling out of the States if I remember correctly. I'll try to pull it up.

edit here's a report from CNN and a link to the research piece.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/17/health/china-air-pollution-coronavirus-deaths-intl/index.html

http://www.g-feed.com/2020/03/covid-19-reduces-economic-activity.html

I've also now read that this may miss some of the knock-on effects (strained health service, economic costs, etc.), so I wouldn't take it as gospel. The author actually edited the paper to make this point.

Ran out of toilet paper so I'm reduced to wiping my bum with lettuce leaves. I fear this is just the tip of the iceberg

How times change.
A year ago this weekend,
it was The Peoples' Vote March.

The poor staff probably have enough on their plate and may well find it is an automated restriction anyway.

Just put the repeat offenders on ignore to flatten the thread