Science, Statistics and Studies [SARS-CoV-2]

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Justification for suppression policies of delaying peak virus transmission in the UK

Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses
on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing
peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe
disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse
epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining
that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges. We find
that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of
suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household
as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at
most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by
2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic
would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and
health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed
many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves
suppression as the preferred policy option.