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GoatandTricycle-
But we are somewhere between green and orange, with hopefully the red line raising..?
I would expect the red line to go up slowly. To raise it from 8 to 9 you'd need to add 670 critical care beds in the country and dedicate them all to this.
(Obviously it's not just a bed that is required, it's the equipment [i.e. ventilators/etc], staff, backup staff, etc.)
Greenbank
I read it as meaning that if you want to keep infections below ICU bed capacity, you need indefinite lockdown until you get a vaccine, because (looking at the green line) pretty much as soon as you relax the restrictions it goes exponential again.