You are reading a single comment by @d_m and its replies.
Click here to read the full conversation.
-
Ive have 0 qualification in public health but my wife works at LSHTM and has been explaining the epi basics to me and I've been listening to their staff conferences.
As far as i can gather the inputs, at the moment, are changing rapidly. Once they have some more info on the serological profile of the virus it will get much more accurate.
d_m
It's very difficult to give a single figure because of the wide disparities in fatality rates between different age groups - 0% for 0-9 years, nearly 20% for 80+ in Italy. The average IFR for a population will therefore depend on the demographics of the population - an older population will have a higher IFR. And of course given the susceptibility of people with pre-existing conditions, how healthy the population is overall.
AFAIK the Imperial model is the best that's public domain. I imagine the error factor is huge though.