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If the reported fatality rates overall of 2% you'd be at about 1.3 million.
Peter Piot reckons one to two per cent. Remember, the UK has low intensive care capacity. Disclaimer: I´m a massive Piot fanboy.
Petteri-
Peter Piot reckons one to two per cent. Remember, the UK has low intensive care capacity. Disclaimer: I´m a massive Piot fanboy.
It's very difficult to give a single figure because of the wide disparities in fatality rates between different age groups - 0% for 0-9 years, nearly 20% for 80+ in Italy. The average IFR for a population will therefore depend on the demographics of the population - an older population will have a higher IFR. And of course given the susceptibility of people with pre-existing conditions, how healthy the population is overall.
AFAIK the Imperial model is the best that's public domain. I imagine the error factor is huge though.
Brommers
Not according to the latest Imperial model, which puts total deaths at 550,000 assuming a 'do nothing' policy. Still a lot of people, but not a million. Obviously it's just a model, but it's the best forecast I'm aware of.
It's still possible you could end up with over a million fatalities of course. If the reported fatality rates overall of 2% you'd be at about 1.3 million. However, most studies put the IFR for C19 at just under 1%. Still far more lethal than seasonal flu, where the IFT is under 0.1%.