Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

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Petteri in reply to @Thrustvector

Thought the 'do nothing' mortality figures were potentially north of half a million?

That´s assuming hospitals could cope, which they wouldn´t. A do nothing option would involve a million dead, mass graves etc.

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Brommers in reply to @Petteri

Not according to the latest Imperial model, which puts total deaths at 550,000 assuming a 'do nothing' policy. Still a lot of people, but not a million. Obviously it's just a model, but it's the best forecast I'm aware of.

It's still possible you could end up with over a million fatalities of course. If the reported fatality rates overall of 2% you'd be at about 1.3 million. However, most studies put the IFR for C19 at just under 1%. Still far more lethal than seasonal flu, where the IFT is under 0.1%.

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Petteri in reply to @Brommers

If the reported fatality rates overall of 2% you'd be at about 1.3 million.

Peter Piot reckons one to two per cent. Remember, the UK has low intensive care capacity. Disclaimer: I´m a massive Piot fanboy.

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