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No idea but what's for sure though is that nudging people is doing absolutely fuck all
I'm not sure "fuck all" is how the businesses collapsing would put it. There is very clear evidence that the current recommendations are having a profound impact. Whether it will be enough to prevent a lockdown akin to what we're seeing on the continent? I'd guess no.
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I'd guess the next stage would be all non-essential travel is banned. Essential travel will be deemed going from home to work (if your job is critical) or to the shops for food etc..
No idea but what's for sure though is that nudging people is doing absolutely fuck all so they'll need to escalate at some point.