You are reading a single comment by @skinny and its replies.
Click here to read the full conversation.
London Fixed Gear and Single-Speed is a community of predominantly fixed gear and single-speed cyclists in and around London, UK.
This site is supported almost exclusively by donations. Please consider donating a small amount regularly.
skinny
deleted
Did you read the link?
Neil Ferguson posits that deaths now tell you how many people were infected three weeks ago. So 56 deaths to date implies there were 5,500 cases three weeks ago, and the number of cases will have multiplied 10 x in a three week period, hence the CSA's assumption that there are 55,000 cases in the UK today.
Basically, enough is known about the virus to estimate the number of cases today from the number of deaths to date.
Ps - the CSA estimated 10k cases last Thursday when there has been 10 deaths, so I'm fairly sure he is using Neil Ferguson's rule of thumb.