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Given they're not testing you cant use the cases figures any more. News agencies should stop quoting them outright.
You all need to then factor it due to delay between getting sick and dying. And that still does not account for asymptomatic cases. So it will be even higher. Sorry that's what the tweet says, didnt read reply.
skinny-
Did you read the link?
Neil Ferguson posits that deaths now tell you how many people were infected three weeks ago. So 56 deaths to date implies there were 5,500 cases three weeks ago, and the number of cases will have multiplied 10 x in a three week period, hence the CSA's assumption that there are 55,000 cases in the UK today.
Basically, enough is known about the virus to estimate the number of cases today from the number of deaths to date.
Ps - the CSA estimated 10k cases last Thursday when there has been 10 deaths, so I'm fairly sure he is using Neil Ferguson's rule of thumb.
deleted
The CSA's estimates for number of cases are basically the current number of deaths in the UK multiplied by 1,000, per this tweet here:
https://mobile.twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1234944654799495168
For clarity - I was referring to reply from Neil Ferguson