Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

So that paper says we need to keep these measures up for 18months

The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package –
or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a
vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission
will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.

I don't think anybody would think it was a panacea, but tbh living with this existential threat is something that might be helped by taking a vitamin that I woukd suspect more than 20% of people in this country are deficient in. Particularly following our dark winters. Doing something that might support a stronger immune system is worthwhile imo, and handwashing, and behaving in such a way that assumes you are infectious. The fluffy wooly guidance by the government is in sharp contrast to the 'get brexit done' message of the election. Which can only heighten anxiety

Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread –reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely.

Ta. Paper suggests SK and China did B, and that's our only realistic option.

tldr: we need to build to expand capacity, dramatically

Anyone else feeling basically helpless?

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths

What a time to be British.

https://twitter.com/hancocktom/status/1239669605586604032?s=21

Yup.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51916076 has potential worrying consequences.

There could be debates and votes if the opposition called for one. It's not a new process.

https://www.parliament.uk/site-information/glossary/nodding-through-on-the-nod/

The stats say 20% of adults have some degree of Vitamin D deficiency, dark winters and all. When it comes to evidence-led advice, I'd prefer to rely on statistics than gut reaction and instinct. Of those, a percentage will have their immune systems improved by a significant extent by taking Vitamin D supplements. Of that smaller percentage, a still smaller percentage will find their recovery from Covid19 improved by taking supplements. Sure, it won't hurt taking them, but in the grand scheme of things it's a long way down the list of risk factors. Which is exactly the original point.

Helpless, not yet. Fatalistic, pretty much always. We pretend we hold our own destinies in our hands. That is largely a fallacy.

Very surprised there aren't broadcasts on tv, advert time or infront of the news on a national level. Don't watch TV very often, but was struck by there being plenty of old m&m adverts on but nothing factual?

People are f*cking ridiculous. Someone around my age (early 30’s) with a trolley full of cleaning products in my local Sainsbury’s earlier. Lady of at least 60 coming out with ‘you must have a big house’ in the queue was rather funny though.

I have a shopping list of things I need to pick up for my 80+ grandparents over the next few days and take out to Hertfordshire as they can no longer find it locally or get delivered.

It may well be a long way down the list of risk factors, which are all to stop doing things. Doing something proactively and proplylactically may make all the difference for some people. But then addressing individual differences are my expertise. I need to take it anyway, and there are a lot of people who are more at risk of deficiency than others eg elderly people and people with darker skin

Free course by London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - starts 23 march

https://www.futurelearn.com/courses/covid19-novel-coronavirus

Anyone know what situation in Spain is like with regards to returning nationals? BBC says "Spain will start controls at land borders at midnight on Monday and only Spanish citizens, residents and special cases will be allowed in the country."
I have a student who is in bits worrying about their family and I'm wondering whether going home is still an option, (maybe a good option.)

Citizens will always be able to return to their home country. The logistics of doing so may however be challenging, particularly if air travel is required. If they want to get back home, now or soon would be a good time to start moving, I reckon.

Spent the evening booking a grid of home food deliveries.

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What do you think the mask does for you?

Helps to get on the high horse in the morning.

Not sure why we can't just be supportive of one-another

Mmmmkay

and stop being arrogant / ignorant / complacent / naive.

Do as I say, not as I do then.

I'm travelling back from Exeter uni today and I'll be wearing a (cycling) mask the whole way. I wouldn't bother but my London housemate has health conditions and it puts him more at ease

Probably asked elsewhere, but is it responsible to go for a ride whilst in London in a couple. It's not like we'd be touching or interacting with anyone

Sounds pretty low risk?
I'm about to jump on public transport and go to work :/