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@Oliver Schick
So, on the Imperial College work:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/pm-tells-britons-to-avoid-non-essential-contact-with-others
It claims there would have been 260,000 deaths with the Government's previous approach (not just from the virus, but also from other conditions that wouldn't have been treated), but 'only' 20,000 with isolation.
It's interesting that the virus seems to have been in currency in China since at least November, perhaps brought to Italy by people working in the close economic ties the two countries are said to have.