Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

It’s an important part you have though if it keeps health workers in work and the elderly out of hospitals.

I just want to restate this. It sucks for you guys (teachers) to be in that position, especially when it's already a, largely, thankless job. So props to you guys and hope it all works out for the best and safely.

Ok here’s one for you.

A friend is in self isolation, she lives in a house with one other person so the new guidelines state that she and the other person should self isolate for 14 days. However, the other person is an A&E doctor, so the self isolation doesn’t apply to them. So does that mean the friend only self isolates for 7 days? Or does the 14 still apply to her?

7 days

I've been out walking in NZ for the last 4 days with no phone reception, things seem to have escalated very quickly both here & in the UK!

We're over for a couple of weddings, feel very sorry for the couple's - a lot of people now can't come (including members of the bridal party), another wedding has had to be cancelled. Small compared to risk of health but very stressful for the people involved.

Back in the UK someone from my office has tested positive (CEO named them in the email which seemed a little harsh) so everyone is working from home indefinitely - hopefully the shops will still be functioning when/if we get back in a week or so!

Where is this stated please? Genuine question #notdick

For the c. 80% of the population who aren't Vitamin D deficient, yes, it is absolutely irrelevant. For the remainder, no, Vitamin D supplements might help. But as @Chalfie correctly notes, that doesn't make it a panacea which makes all problems go away.

Hope you have no issue getting back;

Customer from Canada said he was told his flight in April will be cancelled unless something major changes.

Friend in Germany due over late spring also advised the border will
Probably be shut :/

Pretty bad asthma.

Closing the schools for most and keeping a skeleton service for key workers' children seems the best bet.

Working from home for two weeks, but the missus has a temperature so looks like I'd be here anyway.
Main suppliers are in Northern Italy. Still have a tiny amount of product coming through but it's going to fuck the season up massively. Whether there will be much demand going forward who knows. Having to completely reforecast demand but it's unknown territory. Sponsoring a world tour team for the first time could have been better timed.

Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.
In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates of likely ICU demand due to COVID-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK (previous planning estimates assumed half the demand now estimated) and with the NHS providing increasing certainty around the limits of hospital surge capacity.
We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time. The social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently.

Imperial College on what's going on - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Maybe ask if you can schedule staff around their vulnerabilities in any way?
I understand the notion and that you could have fewer staff in but those will also be the higher risk students...
It’s really tough but you have my admiration and respect.

epidemic suppression

So what is an epidemic suppression strategy, as opposed to a mitigation strategy?

I just skimmed the paper but it seems to explain the difference. Looks to be worth a proper read.

Lockdown

So, on the Imperial College work:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/pm-tells-britons-to-avoid-non-essential-contact-with-others

It claims there would have been 260,000 deaths with the Government's previous approach (not just from the virus, but also from other conditions that wouldn't have been treated), but 'only' 20,000 with isolation.

It's interesting that the virus seems to have been in currency in China since at least November, perhaps brought to Italy by people working in the close economic ties the two countries are said to have.

Matt Hancock statement to Parliament tonight.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/coronavirus-nhs-cancel-elective-surgeries-21703472.amp?__twitter_impression=true

I suppose it was only a matter of time before the nonsensical 'war' tropes were rolled out:

''We are in a war against an invisible killer and we've got to do everything we can to stop it.''

For the avoidance of doubt, trying to limit and mitigate the effect of a virus has absolutely nothing to do with war. Politicians still love that phrase, as in 'war on drugs/terror/etc.' Judging by the amazing success of these 'wars', absolutely the last thing anyone should do is take that phrase to heart.

Yeah thanks - already a bit difficult as we were supposed to be calling in to Sydney for the weekend on our way back but obv can't do that now because of the isolation thing. So we already have to rebook the flights.

We'll see, I imagine given its the UK we're returning to, we should be able to get back in relatively easily. Though my partner is a foreign so maybe not!

https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/flattening-the-coronavirus-curve-is-not-enough/

Are you still abroad somewhere?

Feel like I’ve been saying this in to a void!
Seems unclear that we can rapidly expand ICU provision though

Worrying queues for guns in USA .
If it all goes a bit mad max there will be carnage over there .

Isn't that what the conscripts are for?

Yep. In law in Seattle said all the gun stores have been cleared out. Happens every time there’s an emergency.

I’m sure it’ll be fine - there’ll be a spike in gun accidents but people underestimate society’s will to not get all mad max.

The rush for ventilators? If so yes
We then need the staff... I’ve no idea how much training it requires