Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Ocado have substituted our hot cross buns for whole wheat ones.

Thoughts AND prayers.

took me over an hour to check out an order yesterday for the earliest slot available... next wednesday. the site was running slow as treacle and the payment page refused to load until i opened the site in incognito mode for some reason.

as soon as I managed to get it put through and confirmed, I checked the slots again out of curiosity and there was a cancellation so they had a slot for this eve so I put through another one.

This thread moves faster than CV, so maybe this has been covered but...

How many others feel maybe slightly consumed by dread; in the knowledge that the countries around us are closing schools, banning social gatherings, stopping flights, declaring national emergencies and locking down. While little Brexit Britain is blathering on about herd immunity.

We’re now only testing those that are hospitalised - even though the WHO director general has today advised Europe:

Not testing alone,” he said. “Not contact tracing alone. Not quarantine alone. Not social distancing alone. Do it all. Find, isolate, test and treat every case, to break the chains of transmission … Do not just let this fire burn.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/european-countries-take-radical-steps-to-combat-coronavirus

Why are we the outlier here? What does our government know; that every other government also trying to minimise the impact of Coronavirus doesn't? Both methods cannot be correct and from what I can see, we're the only country that has taken this path.

Could it have anything to do with the fact we’re run by a bunch of old Etonians and:

School closures lasting four weeks could cut 3% from the UK’s GDP, costing the economy billions of pounds, according to research being considered by the government as it weighs up the benefits and risks of shutting down classrooms.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-school-closures-uk-gdp-ministers-warned

We're all used to seeing a Conservative government’s disregard for its citizens and I know we’re meant to plod along to the tune of the national anthem while repeating the mantra “Keep calm and carry on”, but relying solely on the diligence of us all to sing happy birthday twice while we wash our hands and self isolate if we feel like it, well, it doesn't seem to fit the urgency of a global fucking pandemic.

Right?!

Luckily J Corbyn will hold the PM to account in the commons

Anyone watching Channel Four News at the moment? Professor John Edmonds, London school of hygiene and tropical medicine is saying that we'll be living with the epidemic for the rest of the year, and we're going to have to accept the ~400,000 deaths as the price of gaining immunity.

I've put in one a week for the next few weeks.

#middleclassprepping

But will the panic buying die out...

Pretty much my thinking. There’s no evidence that herd immunity will work for this particular virus, but we do know that the strategy used in China appears to have worked so far.

This thread was good - best explanation I've seen of the govt plan (assumed)

https://mobile.twitter.com/iandonald_psych/status/1238518395634679808

Difficulty is that we don't know whether they'll just be back where they were as soon as restrictions lift. I am coming round to the current approach, although it is clearly riskg

I reckon next week the supermarkets will be pretty chill. Everyone’s panic buying now and most people will have full cupboards on Monday.

I see what you're saying.

However, it also seems strange to me that you're going to get rid of this by lockdown. I can see that will delay it but at some point in the future the lockdown has to end and I can't see that it will be completely eradicated so will flare up again.

If there's a vaccine on the horizon then I understand the lockdown. If not, then how long can it realistically go on for?

I guess it's potentially about limiting the peak, smoothing the number infected so that the hospitals can cope. The question then is whether that lower peak is still higher than the capacity or not.

I've no real idea but I'm not sure if I buy the our leaders are the worst in the world kind of thinking.

Seems legit.

Locking everyone away will not make the virus go away is what i learnt from that show. Plus don't buy a jacket with shoulder pads.

I guess it's potentially about limiting the peak, smoothing the number infected so that the hospitals can cope. The question then is whether that lower peak is still higher than the capacity or not.

This is exactly the reasoning here in DK. I think it's worth it to get that peak as low as possible even if it still exceeds hospital capacity. Having 100 people you can't treat is better than having 1000.

I think the question is rather whether you can afford to lock down.

Disaster funds should allow for a few months for most EU countries.

Is lockdown world leaders equivalent of panic buying loo roll??

Vitamin d will save the day!!

Glad I've got you on team sunny D! 👍🙌

Updated odds of catching COVID-19:

Mar 1-in-4600

Apr 1-in-140

May 1-in-5

Jun 1-in-2

Jul 1-in-12

Aug 1-in-150

Assumes continue current trajectory, without radical interventions.

Hopefully this gives context to Govt comments about timing
interventions right.

https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1238366144261652480?s=20

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Awful, saw my mum earlier and told her I didn’t want to hug her but she insisted.

Just got to encourage everyone to eat healthy and try and avoid the other seasonal illnesses like the plague I guess.

Just like to add I see my old dears a couple of times a week and now I’m thinking I’ll have to limit that massively.

avoid the other seasonal illnesses like the plague

Nice turn of phrase.

Had a chat with my Mum and Dad today. They're cancelling most of their plans and lying low for a while with no visitors.

They're in their mid 70s. Dad is in good health. My Mum has Alzheimers and is due to have fairly major bowel surgery in the next week or so. Other than the surgery Mum is in good physical health. Makes total sense for her to be careful in the run up to her surgery. I'm worried for her.

Ive been trying to work them into my replies, herd and hoof go well together as well.