Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Our procedure to only close schools when necessary uses modelling to determine when this is, why aren’t they testing people comprehensively to test the model, seems absolutely crazy to me.

Switch to modelling from deaths or hospitalised now they have enough data?
Or once ICU is under x amount of strain

Fairly standard YA dystopian zombie stuff. But good fun.

This Herd immunity seems to have been pretty much made up on the hoof, someone mentioned it briefly the other day and they have run with it so as to look like they have a plan.

There noting made up about it

Especially as you're expected to be alert and vigilant at all times, wandering up and down to make sure the little dears aren't being devious...

I'm sure that when I were a lad, the lecturers invigilating just sat at the front with their feet up, occasionally peering over the top of their newspaper to check that nobody was obviously copying their neighbour's work.

For Herd Immunity to be effective you need at least 90%-95% of people to have immunity. Exposure to other coronaviruses will do nothing for you against this specific new coronavirus.

Without a vaccine then the only way to have immunity will be to have had this specific virus and survived. Given it has a case fatality rate of ~1% you'll only get to 90% herd immunity levels in the population once a good 700,000 people have died.

90-95% for something like measles which is extremely contagious (and was achieved)

I'm not going to postulate on this virus because it would all be hypothetical crap. Safe to say it's less.

We are now conducting all meetings by vc. I'm a bit relieved as I had 4 events in 4 consecutive days coming up and looks like they are going in the bin now.

Edit; fact is wrong.

Doesn't measles have R0 of 12?

I read an estimate from Marc Lipsitch that R0 of less than 2 meant something in the range of 20% to 60% of the population having earned immunity would prevent further spread. May have misunderstood that though.

Edit - I looked it up and in simple terms herd immunity threshold = 1 - (1/R0).

So in measles 1 - (1/12) = 92%

But if R0 is 2 (estimate for this virus) then = 50%.

I've been lucky in avoiding toilet duty, recording times in and out of all candidates to monitor "patterns".

Switzerland just shut it's borders. No more freedom of movement.
Shut ski resorts, any place over 50 capacity (restaurants/bars).

I tried to change my flight booked via United on Swiss. Swiss said to talk to United. United said to talk to Swiss.

Time for more whiskey.

Couldn't resist, translated version:

now in all manner of grief at work because our client expects us to be on site next week. i've taken it on myself to send a message to the program manager that i and the rest of my time have reservations about travelling and staying in hotels. One of my team members lives with his 79 year old dad with respiratory issues.

fuck these people and their profit margins.

told them to put me on notice if they want, we ain't going.

I imagine if you try to dab at Bangface you’ll either be praised as a king of irony or beaten to death with a bottle of buckfast or something coz it’s all the rage now despite being absolutely shit

Went out to do a regular stock up of nappies and formula. Plenty of nappies but couldn't find our normal brand of formula anywhere. Not a big deal, can switch brands. But when I was in the local big Tesco looking at the other brands, a very nervous looking woman with a (she told me) 2 month old asked me what all the different brands meant and which one should she get (I had mini_com with me in the pushchair, I don't normally come across visually as a parenting expert). She said she normally breast feeds but saw everyone panic buying and got scared so thought she should do the same. It was fucking heart breaking, to think that people over filling trolleys with bottled water and bog roll had made this young mother feel like if she didn't do the same immediately, that she would put her baby at risk.

For info, I told her (after also trying to say she doesn't need to be worried) that they are all much of a muchness but that the midwives in the hospital gave us Cow & Gate so don't feel bad about buying that.

Local elections (including GLA and Mayoral elections) delayed for a year https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51876269

40 LITRES of olive oil - I have so many questions after seeing that.

40l of olive oil had me in tears.

I’m hoping it’s for an artisanal soap distribution service...

She was possibly concerned that if she caught it - or the flu or whatever - she wouldn’t be able to boob feed for a bit.

Sounds like you helped her out, good stuff.

But if R0 is 2 (estimate for this virus) then = 50%.

Excellent, so only ~ 350,000 have to die before we get to point where herd immunity will kick in.

My old physics teacher (see School Days thread) invited my mate round to smoke weed in the middle of a mock A-level

We also bought some formula for this reason too. If wife gets sick, baby is off the titty and on the bottle

'40 litres of Olive oil',
he's probably just organising the local chapter of Turkish 'Olive oil'
wrestling.

Makes sense now you guys say it, get sick, no boob. That didn't occur to me at the time (no boob from day one for medical reasons here). She just seemed very scared and a bit lost. To talk to a strange, 6'2" bearded Irishman in Thornton Heath Tesco about how to feed your 2 month old baby, pulled at my heart strings.

Yes, bless her, probably exhausted too.

Could imagine this is quite traumatic with a very young child

You helped her feel better than she felt when she entered the store.

My normally quite lucid mom shared a bullshit list of cures which were supposed to be from Stanford University in the (extended) family group chat. Debunked immediately, but still worrying and frustrating.