Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

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bright in reply to @Greenbank

For Herd Immunity to be effective you need at least 90%-95% of people to have immunity. Exposure to other coronaviruses will do nothing for you against this specific new coronavirus.

Without a vaccine then the only way to have immunity will be to have had this specific virus and survived. Given it has a case fatality rate of ~1% you'll only get to 90% herd immunity levels in the population once a good 700,000 people have died.

90-95% for something like measles which is extremely contagious (and was achieved)

I'm not going to postulate on this virus because it would all be hypothetical crap. Safe to say it's less.

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deleted in reply to @bright

Doesn't measles have R0 of 12?

I read an estimate from Marc Lipsitch that R0 of less than 2 meant something in the range of 20% to 60% of the population having earned immunity would prevent further spread. May have misunderstood that though.

Edit - I looked it up and in simple terms herd immunity threshold = 1 - (1/R0).

So in measles 1 - (1/12) = 92%

But if R0 is 2 (estimate for this virus) then = 50%.

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Greenbank in reply to @deleted

But if R0 is 2 (estimate for this virus) then = 50%.

Excellent, so only ~ 350,000 have to die before we get to point where herd immunity will kick in.

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