Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Housemate might not be going to bangface... He's worried he might have it as he played football with someone on Wednesday who has tested positive, it never rains!

Haha yeah I'm pretty sure those will be cancelled too.

But apparently herd immunity is the way to get through this pandemia indeed.

NO ITS NOT

This Herd immunity seems to have been pretty much made up on the hoof, someone mentioned it briefly the other day and they have run with it so as to look like they have a plan.

yes the world at one had herd immunity today

For Herd Immunity to be effective you need at least 90%-95% of people to have immunity. Exposure to other coronaviruses will do nothing for you against this specific new coronavirus.

Without a vaccine then the only way to have immunity will be to have had this specific virus and survived. Given it has a case fatality rate of ~1% you'll only get to 90% herd immunity levels in the population once a good 700,000 people have died.

It sounds like you may also now have it and so your dilemma is solved.

Is there any evidence so far that immunity has any longevity?

We're certainly not immune to influenza even after having it numerous times through ones life.

Plus all the rest who have died because the NHS is overwhelmed for a year or so.

We're certainly not immune to influenza even after having it numerous times through ones life.

Isn't that because it'll always be different strains of influenza?

This will also mutate, no?

I remember seeing him doing his God bothering / money begging schtick on TV in the 90s. He must be ancient by now. But clearly has had so many face lifts that another one will mean he'll be shaving pubes from his chin.

Cannot wait for someone with balls to start taxing churches in the US. Would wipe out national debt pretty quickly.

Paul Pogba with some important information…

https://twitter.com/paulpogba/status/1238465606715944960?s=21

Still waiting on Pogba's update on Bangface

Oh sure, it's doing that as we speak. So it's obviously possible strains different enough for currently immune people to still get it will develop, see also this quite interesting explanation about the flu (which also explains what all of this H-something-N-something-else is about). But in the end, it's not influenza, and it is a much more 'high profile' type of illness, not sure it will be around and about at all times the same way influenza is.

Or even just UoL (e.g. UCL) students taking exams at Excel London, not exactly part of campus.

And now I don't have to invigilate these (small silver lining for me).

Yeah that's what I meant, as dicki mentioned the long term resistance that might help with future coronaviruses. The next virus is different again, so no.

The fatality rate is probably also due to so many people having it at once, so if it passes through the population slower, as some have visioned, it might not be so high. But I know so little about this that if others have more insight, I'll stop now.

Is that calculator regulation equipment? I don't think so!

Yes, these are obviously not 'on-campus' in the strict sense, but are the regular exam format the university has chosen, so technically count as 'on-campus'. It's obviously not very good terminology. What is usually meant by 'off-campus' are irregular exam formats like those taken by candidates who can't travel from where they are for good reasons and often take theirs in locations like embassies or local universities and the like. They're usually difficult to organise and not uncommonly take several attempts to actually happen.

Ha, do they rope in staff to do that now? It always used to be retired or otherwise under-occupied alumni twenty years ago.

Is that calculator regulation equipment? I don't think so!

Cuts deep.. It's the least fun thing I get roped in to help with. Standing watching people write exams for 3 hours at a time is dull.

Both, they still help too..

And what is all this writing up your arm under your sleeve?

ha I bet it's dull. Cricket has more going on.

That case fatality rate was calculated at a time when various countries weren't overwhelmed.

Once an individual country's health service is overwhelmed then the case fatality rate is only going to increase due to lack of facilities/ventilators/respirators needed to treat everyone.

If symptoms are mild then the patient will survive regardless.

If a patient has symptoms that are severe then they would have an increased risk of dying if they can't get access to the treatment necessary to keep them alive until their body can combat it.

If a patient has symptoms that are so severe and/or has other health complications then they're probably going to die regardless of the treatment they receive.

Delaying the pandemic, or "smoothing out the bump" is all about ensuring that the right treatment/equipment is available for everyone who needs it. Without this the case fatality rate will climb above the predicted 1% (as it is doing in Italy now).